Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 172058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1258 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2018


A strong cold front will move through the region Sunday into
Sunday night bringing periods of snow to the Sierra and snow
showers to western Nevada. The temperatures early next week will
be the coldest of the season with dangerous wind chills in the



A strong cold front and gusty winds are on track to cross CA/NV
from north to south tonight into Sunday night. Before we discuss
the snow and wind forecast (starting next paragraph), the bigger
story is the COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SO FAR. Low temperatures
Sunday night will drop into the teens or 20s for most communities
(colder for many Sierra valleys) and Monday night into the teens
or single digits (below zero for some communities). WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIFE THREATENING and below zero across higher elevations
Monday into Tuesday morning.

With the ridge remaining in place over the east Pacific, the
trajectory of this cold-frontal system as it drops south is
mostly over land. Thus, this will not be a major snow event due
to the lack of Pacific moisture. Clouds will lower Sunday, and as
lower levels of the atmosphere moisten up Sunday
afternoon/evening, the snow potential increases (for chances in
western NV and snow becomes likely in the Sierra). Snow on
roadways Sunday afternoon is likely to melt except for over higher
Sierra passes. However, Sunday evening as road surfaces quickly
cool, driving conditions will become more hazardous as snow will
be more likely to stick and any wet surfaces will quickly freeze.
Snow totals for most of western NV and northeast CA through Sunday
night are expected to be in the 0.5-2.0" range, except in the
central Sierra where efficient snow ratios may bring snow totals
up to 5-8 inches.

Winds will continue to increase tonight becoming strong along
ridgetops and gusty in Sierra valleys and along the Sierra front
range. The strongest winds are expected Sunday as the cold front
moves through the region. Wind advisories remain in effect tonight
through Sunday evening mainly for areas south of I-80. Expect
peak wind gusts generally in the 40-50 mph range, but up to 65 mph
in wind prone areas. BLOWING DUST may create sudden reductions in
visibility on Sunday, east of desert sinks and dry lake beds,
especially across Churchill, Pershing and Mineral Counties.

By Monday, drier air will spread across the area, but with
chances for lingering snow showers, especially (1) downwind of
Pyramid Lake, (2) in far eastern Churchill/Pershing counties, and
(3) near the Sierra Crest in Alpine and Mono Counties due to
upslope flow into the Sierra. JCM

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next week...

Cold temperatures will continue through the week with only minor
warming expected going into next weekend. A weak shortwave is
expected to track south along the coast midweek, which will keep
the cold trough in place over the western U.S. For the second half
of the week, some model simulations indicate another cold system
dropping south out of the Pacific Northwest, but forecast
confidence is low regarding its timing and snow potential. JCM



Winds increase tonight as a strong cold front approaches the
region. Increasing winds aloft will create dangerous wind shear
over the Sierra starting late tonight. Surface wind gusts at
terminals increase to 25-35 kts by Sunday morning, and to 30-45
kts by Sunday afternoon. LLWS and mountain wave turbulence are
likely Sunday, along with a quick burst of snow Sunday afternoon
bringing brief IFR conditions and light runway accumulations. JCM


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday NVZ002>004.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday NVZ001.

CA...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday CAZ072.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday CAZ073.



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