070
FXUS65 KVEF 290802
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
102 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for a relatively quiet weather period over the
next seven days featuring above normal temperatures, dry
conditions, periods of clouds, and occasional breezy afternoon
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough will move across the northern Great Basin
today but is only expected to result in some localized gustiness
for our area. We may see a few mid and high clouds pass over the
area but otherwise, we are expecting high temperatures to be
around 3-5 degrees above normal this afternoon. For Thursday,
there are no synoptic weather features to contend with so we are
basically looking for a slight bump in temperatures by a couple
of degrees under light wind conditions. Friday will tell a similar
story although better lower atemospheric mixing could aid in
temperatures eclipsing what is currently forecast, with the NBM
probabilities giving Las Vegas a 25% chance of seeing its first
105 degree day.

Over the weekend, expect for some weak troughing moving over our
area which is expected to temper daytime heating a bit but at
least for Saturday, there will be a notable increase in winds
across much of the area. Generally, we are looking for widespread
20-30 mph winds on Saturday but winds could be stronger across the
Sierra and in the western portions of the Mojave Desert. A slight
flucuation in temperatures and lighter winds are forecast for
Sunday.

A more potent trough moves across the Great Basin on Monday for
increasing winds but at this point, no significant winds requiring
headlines. A midweek ridge of high pressure sets up sending area
temperatures to around 10 degrees abve normal. This will give Las
Vegas the next best chance of high tempertures reaching 105
degrees. The NBM gives a 50% chance of occurrence.


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will follow typical diurnal
directional variations today, with variable to, at times, northeast
winds through this morning, turning to the southeast by early
afternoon.  Sustained wind speeds are expected to remain less than
10kts through mid-afternoon, although an isolated gust to 15kts is
possible once the winds turn to the southeast (20% chance).  Winds
will return to the southwest around 00Z, and gusts of up to 20kts
will become more frequent through mid-evening.  A period of north to
northeast winds is possible Thursday morning, with speeds
potentially exceeding 10kts by the end of the TAF period.  VFR
conditions will prevail throughout the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, southwestern California, and
northwestern Arizona...Conditions at the Las Vegas Valley TAF
sites will be similar to those expected at KLAS, except KHND,
where winds will remain predominately south to southwest through
tonight. Northerly winds will prevail at KBIH today into tonight,
with a few gusts to 20kts possible during the afternoon. Gusty
westerly winds will continue at KDAG, while the Colorado River TAF
sites will see light winds into this afternoon, followed by south
to southwest winds this evening and early night. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Salmen
AVIATION...Planz

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