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155
FXUS61 KAKQ 061055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues today. A cold front pushes across
the region late Thursday into Thursday evening, with a few
strong to severe storms possible. Behind the front, cooler,
drier conditions push into the region for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid today with highs in the 80s. SW winds will gust 20-
30mph through the day.

- Marginal Risks for severe weather and excessive rain:
Thunderstorms expected ahead of a cold front this afternoon into the
late evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain will be possible.

Conditions are mild, humid, and breezy early this morning with a
warm front situated to the N of the FA. Latest obs indicate temps in
the low-mid 70s with RHs around 80-90%. Winds along eastern portions
of the area are gusting 20-30mph. Mostly dry this morning, but
cannot rule out a few stray sprinkles along northern portions of the
area closer to the front. Meanwhile to the west, a cold front has
reached the western edge of Appalachia as of latest sfc analysis. As
the front approaches today, thunderstorms are expected to form out
ahead of it. Based on 00z CAMs, storms will likely be quick to
congeal into a linear feature. Initiation likely begins in the early
afternoon across the far NW. Storms then progress to the SE through
the evening and into the overnight hours. There should be no
shortage of instability given with guidance showing MLCAPE values in
the 1500-2000 J/kg range this afternoon. Shear will be modest, but
20-30kt of bulk shear should be enough to support some strong to
severe storms. Thus, SPC has placed the entire FA in a marginal risk
for severe weather. Main threat will be damaging winds. Will also
note that heavy rain and localized flooding is in the cards as well.
Latest HREF indicates PWs of 1.8-2.0". WPC has placed eastern
portions of the area in a marginal ERO.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s in the SE and mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. SW winds will be gusty through the day with gusts of 20-
30mph (highest along the coast). Showers/storms exit the area after
midnight tonight. Clouds will scatter out and winds diminish as the
front passes through. Lows will be in the low 60s inland and upper
60s-around 70 closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Drier weather moves in Fri behind the departing cold front as
dewpoints drop into the 50s. Aloft, an upper level low moves into
the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into early next week. Guidance is
coming into better agreement with pushing the next weakening front
though the region on Sunday night, but it still appears the upper
level low is too close to the local area for enough instability for
much in the way of widespread showers and/or storms on Sunday. Have
introduced low-end Chc PoPs across far northern counties in the
afternoon with slight chc PoPs everywhere else except the SE. May
see slightly higher coverage later in the evening along the coast,
though.

Highs on Friday will reach the low 80s in the NW and on the Eastern
Shore, mid-80s elsewhere. A few degrees cooler on Saturday with
highs mostly in the low 80s. Warm again on Sunday will highs near 90
in the SE and mid-80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Mostly dry through the early week, but isolated showers
  possible

A bit cooler in the early week period as a fairly deep UL trough
sticks around over the east coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s in
the far N/NW and low 80s elsewhere for Mon and Tues. Temps warm up
into the mid-upper 80s again mid-week once the trough is offshore
and a ridge builds in behind it. Precip in the early week period is
a bit uncertain, but should mainly be dry. However, cannot rule out
a few stray showers with the trough axis nearby. Kept PoPs to Schc
or low-end Chc and limited to the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 655 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z TAF period. However, starting
off with some MVFR CIGs at ECG, but clouds should scatter out
over the next few hours. Winds out of the SW and are gusting to
~20kt near the coast. A cold front approaches from the NW
this afternoon. There is a potential for a line of tstms to
develop out ahead of the front Thursday aftn/early evening.
Brief flight restrictions are possible (mainly in vsby) along
with some locally stronger wind gusts (potentially 30-40kt).
Outside of tstms, will be gusty through most of the period with
gusts ~20kt. The front will pass through overnight. Winds
diminish behind the front and clouds scatter out.

Dry and VFR Friday and Saturday behind the cold front. Another
cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms later
Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but
overall VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late this
  morning/early afternoon for the Ocean N of Cape Charles, the
  Bay, sound, and James River.


- Chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds
  and waves later this afternoon and evening.

- Moderate risk for the northern beaches today and Friday.

The pressure gradient has strengthened in between strong sfc low
pressure passing by N of the Great Lakes, and high pressure well
off the SE US coast. Winds are generally from the SW at 15-20 kt
with gusts to around 25 kt. SCAs remain in effect for the Ocean
N of Cape Charles, the Bay, sound, and James River. For the southern
coastal waters, the offshore component has kept seas capped at
around 3 ft, with 3-4 ft seas to the north (and likely
increasing to ~5 ft offshore there over the next few hrs). Given
only occasional gusts to ~25kt and seas staying well below
the 5 ft criteria, have opted to cancel the SCAs across the
southern ocean zones. Winds are expected to gradually diminish
late this morning into the aftn. Offshore, winds will also fall
off but there is some potential for 4-5 ft seas to linger into
the afternoon hours for the waters north of Chincoteague. The
surface cold front moves through the waters late this aftn into
the overnight with sub-SCA conditions prevailing Friday.

A brief surge is expected Friday night/early Sat morning as
winds become northerly with drier/cooler air moving in, but at
this time it looks too brief/marginal for any headlines. Sub-
SCA conditions then prevail through the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Nuisance to minor coastal flooding has occurred and is ongoing
across bay- facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore including
Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield where a Coastal Flood
Advisory remains in effect through 7 am this morning. Additional
nuisance flooding is possible again early Friday morning. Given
the marginal nature will allow current event to expire and
defer to the next shift to issue either a Coastal Flood
statement or Advisory (today`s aftn high tide cycle will not
produce any flooding as it is the lower astronomical tide).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     637-638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...