-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
992
FXUS61 KAKQ 060537
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
137 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through Thursday. Additional
scattered, hit or miss style, showers and storms continue late
today and tonight. A cold front pushes across the region late
Thursday into Thursday evening, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. Behind the front, cooler, drier conditions push
into the region for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and muggy tonight, with a few
  lingering showers overnight.

A weak surface low and frontal boundary combined with some
energy aloft triggered more intense organized convection N of
the local area this evening from northern VA to NE MD. Locally,
only some lingering showers area passing across the northern
tier of the area. The latest CAMs show little additional
activity overnight, although some secondary shortwave energy
could bring some showers and a slight chc of a tstm overnight
from the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore. Elsewhere, PoPs
are 20% or less. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s and a light S wind under a partly to mostly
cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warm and muggy Thursday.

- Early morning showers and storms followed by more numerous
  showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening preceding a
  crossing cold front.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible over the region.
  Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are
  the expected hazards in any storms Thursday afternoon into
  Thursday evening.

Low pressure trundles slowly east toward E Ontario/James Bay
region tomorrow, with its surface cold front crossing into the
eastern Great Lakes and eastern OH/TN River valleys by sunrise
Thu morning. The front then slowly slides east toward the area
through the day on Thursday.

The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for
portions of the area Thursday, with PW values remaining near
climo daily maxes (~1.7-1.8"). More showers and storms look
redevelop along the pre-frontal trough by late Thu morning into
early afternoon, as the cold front swings east of the central
Appalachians. The pre-frontal environment over the local Aurea
is expected to be characterized as marginally unstable, with
MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg along with a modest
increase to deep layer bulk shear of 25-30 kt (W-SW) and mid-
level lapse rates ~6-6.5 (C/km). The modest uptick in 3-8 km
shear could easily help to focus developing convection a little
bit more as the front drops through the region, allowing for a
marginal strong to severe/quasi-linear storm mode to be favored.
The best chance for a few strong to severe storms Thu aftn is
along and E-SE of I-95 into eastern VA and NE NC, but a few
damaging wind reports are possible area wide. SPC has upgraded
to a Marginal Risk across the entire region for Day 2. Again,
gusty winds are the main storm threat, but locally heavy
rainfall/urban flood issues are also a concern. Finally, given
the quasi-zonal flow aloft and rather moist low-level airmass,
any storms that fire will likely also be rather prolific
lightning producers as well. Timing for storms looks to be
18-21z west (2-5 PM EDT) in the west and 20-02z (4-10PM EDT)
east of I-95.

Highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed (highest SE) and upper 80s to
lower 90s Thu expected.

Showers and storms taper off from W to E Thu evening, with
drier air filtering into the region late Thu night into Fri
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday through Sunday, with mainly dry
  weather to persist into early next week.

- Near to below normal temperatures appear likely over the
  weekend into early next week, trending back to and above
  normal for the latter half of the week.

Drier weather moves in Fri behind the departing cold front as
dewpoints drop into the 50s. Pleasantly cooler and drier Friday
night into Saturday, with dry weather expected. Aloft, an upper
level low moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into
early next week. Guidance is coming into better agreement with
pushing the next weakening front though the region on Sunday
night, but it still appears the upper level low is too close to
the local area for enough instability for much in the way of
widespread showers and/or storms on Sunday. Instead, only a
slight chance for a few isolated showers/storms exists late Sun,
with slight to low- end chance PoPs continuing along the coast
into Monday. Highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z TAF period. Starting the
period with SCT- BKN mid and high clouds. MVFR CIGs at SBY now
looking less likely based on recent guidance. However, may still
have a couple of hours of MVFR in the early morning hours.
Precip has mostly come to an end for the night, but a few
stray, light showers may still impact SBY through the morning.
Winds have turned to the SW and are gusting to ~20kt near the
coast. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday aftn. There
is a potential for a line of tstms to develop out ahead of the
front Thursday aftn/early evening. Brief flight restrictions are
possible (mainly in vsby) along with some locally stronger wind
gusts (potentially 30-40kt). Outside of tstms, will be gusty
through most of the period with gusts ~20kt.

Dry and VFR Friday and Saturday behind the cold front. Another
cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms later
Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but
overall VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters
except the upper tidal rivers.

- Chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds and
waves this evening and again on and Thursday afternoon and evening.

-Low rip current risk late this afternoon, with a moderate risk for
the northern beaches Thursday and Friday.

High pressure has moved well offshore ahead of an approaching trough
and cold front over the Midwest. Flow aloft is rather weak across
the local area with an upper trough moving into the western Great
Lakes and a building ridge over the SW CONUS. Winds locally are from
the S or SW 5-10 kt with waves/seas generally 1-3 ft.

Expect the pressure gradient to tighten this evening and tonight as
the cold front continues to approach the region from the NW. Winds
increase to 15-20 kt with gust to 25 kt over the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound late this evening. Offshore, winds
will be more marginal but there will be a period with gusts near or
slightly higher than 25 kt. Confidence in seeing these winds is
highest for the waters near and north of Cape Charles Light but
opted to include all the coastal waters in SCA headlines to better
match with neighboring offices. Winds diminish quickly Thursday
morning but have extended the SCA headlines in the Ches Bay for a
few more hours than previously forecast. Offshore, winds will also
fall off quickly but there is some potential for 4-5 ft seas to
linger into the afternoon hours for the waters north of
Chincoteague. Will let subsequent shifts fine-tune the timing if
necessary. The surface cold front moves through the waters late
Thursday into the overnight with sub-SCA conditions prevailing late
week and into next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some nuisance to minor coastal flooding is forecast this evening and
tonight. Minor flooding is forecast for bay-facing portions of the
MD Eastern Shore including Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield
where a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued. Nuisance flooding is
possible along the tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers tonight as
well and a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for this region.
Otherwise, most tidal sites in the middle and lower bay, including
up the James River, may see only very shallow flooding near the
waterfront over the next couple days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     637-638-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/AM
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...