-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
367
FXUS61 KAKQ 152326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
726 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with seasonable temperatures continue through the weekend.
A very warm and mainly dry pattern then looks to take hold for
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few degrees cooler with pleasant humidity levels this
  afternoon and and tonight.

Latest analysis reveals surface low pressure is now well
offshore of the New England coast. The associated surface cold
front is now offshore, extending south along the coastal
Carolinas and extending W-SW across the mid-South. To the NW,
1024+mb high pressure over the upper Great Lakes continues to
build E-SE over the interior northeast this afternoon. Aloft,
mid-level trough axis is offshore of the New England coast with
a building upper ridge from the mid- South to the central gulf
coast.

Breezy NNE winds are bringing an influx of cooler/drier air,
with a mainly clear/sunny sky and pleasant afternoon in progress
across the region. 18z temps range from the low to mid 80s over
much of the area, with cooler lower 80s over Hampton Roads into
northeast NC. Continued clear and a bit cooler tonight with
lows in the upper 50s NW and low to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A bit warmer each day (Sunday and Monday), but relatively
  comfortable humidity levels continue.

High pressure remains centered to the north of the local area
Sunday, and slowly transitions offshore later Sunday into Sunday
night. Resultant low-level winds transition from E-NE to E-SE
through the day. Meanwhile, the upper ridge strengthens over the
southeast CONUS, allowing for PW and dewpoints to slowly
increase tomorrow afternoon and night. Given this timing, expect
apparent temperatures (heat index values) to remain similar to
air temperatures. Highs Sunday increase slightly as thicknesses
climb, ranging generally in the mid to upper 80s inland with
low to mid 80s for areas closer to the coast. Milder and
slightly more humid Sunday night with low temps in the low to
mid 60s.

Upper ridge continues to build on Monday with highs again rising
slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s. Onshore wind component
(SE) will again keep areas near the coast a few degrees cooler,
generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Monday night in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather likely persists for the mid week
  period through next weekend.

Medium range period looking to be characterized by an extended
period of very warm (but not quite hot) and mainly dry
conditions. The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues
to build as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard. This
sets up an atypical temperature pattern through midweek with
warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into
the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. H5 heights rise
to ~596-598 dam Tue-Wed. A mostly sunny sky will result in
highs in the low to mid 90s Tuesday afternoon as the core of the
upper ridge begins to lift just north of the area.

EPS/GEFS guidance does (very) slowly break down the heat ridge
for the mid to late week period, as an inverted upper trough
pushes ashore along the deep south from the western Atlantic,
undercutting the core of the heat ridge aloft to our north.
This will result in a continued very warm/dry late week period.
High temps hold in the low/mid 90s through the week, with
Tuesday looking like the warmest day of the first half of the
week. However, as surface dew points are forecast to remain in
the 60s, we don`t appear likely to threaten any Heat Headline
thresholds through the middle of the week ahead.

The hottest part of the week at this time actually looks to be
Friday into next weekend, as high pressure slides offshore of
the mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more
typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern then allows heat to
build Friday and Saturday. EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes
from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more widespread mid to
upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to
low 100s. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week
but could approach 70 degrees heading into next weekend as low
level moisture increases. A low chance for thunderstorms may be
feasible by next weekend, as a weak lee trough sets up Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 725 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Dry/mainly
SKC skies tonight with generally light and variable winds as
high pressure builds into the region. FEW to SCT cumulus (~5000
to 6000 ft) develop Sunday late morning through Sunday
afternoon. Winds become E to SE by Sunday afternoon around 5 to
10 knots.

Outlook: Winds will average 10 kt or less with dry/VFR conditions
and a mostly clear into early next week as high pressure
gradually shifts off the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through the weekend.
- Southeast winds briefly increase to 15 to 20 knots Monday evening.

High pressure over the E Great Lakes gradually builds E into
interior New England tonight before moving offshore Mon. As such,
N/NE winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this afternoon become
NE later this afternoon, becoming E 5-10 kt this evening into
tonight. Winds gradually become SE 10-15 kt Sun afternoon, becoming
S 5-10 kt Sun night. As the high moves farther offshore, winds
become SE 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Mon afternoon. Winds increase
to 14-17 kt with gusts to 20 kt by Mon evening with the potential
for marginal SCA conditions. Wind probs are 50-60% for 18 kt
sustained winds in the Ches Bay. Winds become S 10-15 kt Mon night
and are expected to remain generally diurnal (SE in the afternoon
and S at night) 5-15 kt through the week as a ridge remains over the
East Coast.

Waves and seas were 1-3 ft and ~3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas subside to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft tonight, remaining
generally at this level through the week. The exception is a brief
increase in waves to 2-3 ft late Mon afternoon into early Mon night
as winds increase. There is a low rip risk Sun across all area
beaches and a moderate rip risk for the N beaches Mon (low S).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...RMM