-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
436
FXUS61 KAKQ 050740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes through
late Thursday into Thursday evening, bringing drier conditions
for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Isolated showers and potentially a thunderstorm are possible
  this morning across central and southeast VA.

Scattered showers are developing over south central VA pushing
north along a weak boundary denoted by a slight wind shift and
trough denoted in the surface analysis. CAMS are struggling to
pick up on this morning`s activity, but given the low level
moisture and focus expect these showers to come and go through
the early morning hours.

Areas N of the boundary are seeing a marine layer push onshore
across the VA Eastern Shore and bay in ESE flow resulting in
some stratus and some fog. This has been limited thus far and
may remain contained to the Bay and Eastern Shore.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warm and humid Wednesday/Thursday.

- More scattered to even numerous showers and storms are
  expected this afternoon and evening.

- Showers and storms will decrease late this evening with a wave
  of scattered showers possible overnight followed by more
  numerous showers and storms Thursday afternoon.

- Locally heavy rain is possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of disturbances/MCVs push across the region today
and overnight, as an upper level low approaches the Great
Lakes. Increasing mid-level flow combined with a weak boundary
across the region will continue to support a few rounds of
showers and storms this, with more showers and storms expected
to develop throughout the this afternoon and evening. Showers
and storms may come in several waves from this morning through
this afternoon, overnight and again Thursday as depicted by
some of the CAMS and HREF. Increasing flow aloft should ease flooding
concerns with storm motions likely faster than those of
today/tonight though strong localized training of showers and
storms may be possible. Locally heavy rain remains a
possibility, again with main concern in flood prone/urbanized
areas. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for
portions of the area today and Thursday. There remains a very
low chance for an isolated severe storm or two, but with
kinematics rather weak given the expected multiple rounds of
convection and overall weak bulk shear, heavy rain/flood
potential remains the primary hazard.

Showers and storms should taper off later this evening with
another wave of showers possible overnight with an upper
shortwave. More showers and storms redevelop Thu late
morning/afternoon as the cold front approaches the area. The
best chance for a few strong to severe storms Thu is across
eastern VA and NE NC, where likely PoPs (60-70%) remain in
place. Any storms move offshore by Thu night as drier air moves
into the region behind the front. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall are the main hazards Thu.
SPC Day 3 Risk remains in the General Risk category, largely due
lingering uncertainties regarding exact timing. Highs in the
mid to upper 80s Wed (highest SE) and upper 80s to lower 90s Thu
expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into early next week, with near
  to below normal temperatures appearing likely over the weekend
  into early next week.

Drier weather moves in Fri behind a cold front as dewpoints drop
into the 50s. Pleasantly cooler and drier Friday night into
Saturday, with dry weather expected. Aloft, an upper level low
moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into early next
week. Latest GEFS/ECS continue to jostle for when the next
(weak) cold front drops into the area. Either way, it appears
the upper level low is too close to the local area for enough
instability for much in the way of widespread showers and/or
storms on Sunday. Instead, only a slight chance for a few
isolated showers/storms exists late Sun, with slight to low-end
chance PoPs continuing Mon and Tue. Highs mainly in the lower to
middle 80s with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 06z with a SE wind of 5-10kt at
RIC, and SE to E 5-10kt toward the coast. The marine layers has
been slow to push across the eastern shore with a few sites
south of SBY reporting IFR ceilings. Will have to monitor sites
near the ocean and Bay to see if more IFR ceilings or fog push
into the region from the east. Isolated showers were developing
southwest of RIC, but these will likely stay away from the
airport at least through the next few hours. More scattered
showers and storms increasing in coverage will develop later
this morning and through the afternoon. Expect more ceiling
BKN040 this afternoon with cu and convection. We should see a
break in showers later this evening with another rough of
scattered showers possible overnight.

More scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Thursday
late morning and into the afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the west. Mainly dry Friday through Sunday behind the font,
with VFR likely prevailing for much of Friday through Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and
  lower James River starting late this evening ahead of a cold
  front that will cross the area Thursday night.

- Chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds and
waves today and Thursday.

-Low rip current risk today, trending toward moderate risk at
northern beaches Thursday.

A large area of sfc high pressure situated offshore early this
morning with a subtle warm front pushing N along the coast. Latest
obs indicate winds out of the SE at 5-10kt. Today, high pressure
will slowly get pushed farther out to sea as a cold front gradually
approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the NW. Breezy conditions are
expected by late afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds
will gradually become more southerly and increase to 10-15kt in the
afternoon, then 15-20kt later in the evening. Tonight, winds will
turn to the SW as high pressure offshore is pushed S. Sustained
speeds increase to near 20kt in the bay and coastal waters after
midnight (~15kt in rivers/Currituck Sound) with gusts up to 25kt.
Thus, SCA are in place for the bay and lower James starting late
this evening and in effect through Thursday morning. Will note that
there is the potential for higher wind gusts given the presence of a
LLJ around 40kt. However, weak lapse rates over the waters tonight
suggests these higher speeds will have a hard time mixing down.
Conditions will improve through the day Thursday, though still
remaining breezy with southerly winds at 10-15kt. The cold front
crosses the waters Thursday night, turning winds to the W by Friday
morning at 5-10kt. High pressure then gradually builds in from the
SW through the weekend. Sub-SCA conditions expected over the weekend
with winds varying between NW and SW and 5-15kt. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected both today and Thursday, which may cause
locally higher winds and waves.

Seas are around 2ft this morning and waves are 1ft or less. As winds
increase today, waves build to 1-2ft seas 2-3ft by the afternoon.
Tonight, waves will be 2-3ft in the bay and 1-2ft in the
rivers/sound. Seas build to 3-4ft with the potential for 5ft seas
out near 20nm in northern waters. Waves fall back to 1-2ft by
Thursday afternoon. Seas stay at 3-4ft through Thursday evening,
then fall back to 2-3ft Friday. Rip current risk will be low at all
area beaches today. Rip risk increases at Eastern Shore beaches
Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 505 PM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding remains possible
during the higher high tide cycles tonight/early Wednesday
morning, mostly for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At
this time, the highest tide looks to be early Thursday morning
where Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield all could near 3.5
ft MLLW, which is minor flooding at these sites. Otherwise, most
tidal sites in the middle and lower bay, including up the James
River, may see only very shallow flooding near the waterfront
over the next couple days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ638.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...MAM/RMM/JAO
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...