-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
821
FXUS61 KAKQ 031920
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through late week with daily chances for
scattered showers and storms. A cold front pushes through Thursday
night into Friday bringing drier conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Scattered light showers continue this morning with thunderstorms
this afternoon.

- There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding
across central and southeast Virginia this afternoon into this
evening.

The latest WX analysis indicates a weak shortwave moving into
the region upstream of an upper low off the SC coast. At the
surface, weak high pressure is centered offshore of the
Southeast Coast. Morning showers are gradually tapering off
over SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures range through the 70s.
Instability increases by this afternoon as dewpoints rise into
the upper 60s (to around 70F in spots) with temps rising into
the mid 80s. Weak NW flow aloft will prevail, and another weak
shortwave will approach later today before tracking over the
area tonight into early Tue. A weak surface low forms over
central VA this afternoon, allowing for enough surface
convergence for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. CAMs
continue to show the highest coverage of convection along the
I-64 corridor, especially in SE VA. Will maintain likely PoPs
for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in
central to SE VA. Elsewhere, have chance PoPs as storm coverage
is expected to be a bit less. With relatively slow storm motions
expected given the weak deep- layer flow and moderately high
(1.4-1.8") PW values, any storm will be capable of producing a
quick 1-2" of rain. This would be enough to result in flooding
of urban, suburban, and poor drainage areas. WPC has maintained
a MRGL ERO for central and SE VA to account for the localized
flash flood risk. Additionally, a few storms may be strong with
gusts to 40-50 mph in the strongest storms due to wet
microbursts. Storms taper off this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to
push inland. Scattered showers/storms are possible mainly along
this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with
a slight drop in T/Td. CAMs have trended less inland with the
front and now have it stalling through most of the day Tue. As
such, PoPs have increased (mainly across W portions of the FA).
A chance of showers and storms (~30% PoPs) continues across SW/W
portions of the FA Tue night as nearly stationary showers/storms
linger into the night. Upper ridging briefly builds over the
area Tue night-early Wed before moving just to our E by late
Wed. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into
the Great Lakes at the same time. Shortwave energy ahead of
this trough will cross the area late Wed into Wed night,
providing enough forcing for scattered storms to form during
the afternoon and evening (highest PoPs west of I-95). Showers
and storms move E Wed night. A few storms may be strong with
strong winds the main threat. Additionally, WPC has the W
2/3rds of the FA under a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall
both Tue and Wed given slow storm motions. As such, localized
ponding on roadways and urban areas is possible. Highs in the
mid-upper 80s Tue and Wed with lows in the mid to upper 60s Tue
night and upper 60s to lower 70s Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday.

- Drier weather prevails from Friday through the weekend.

A cutoff low likely moves over the Great Lakes by late week
before moving SE into interior New England this weekend. At the
surface, a cold front crosses the area Thu night into Fri. As
such, scattered afternoon storms are again possible on Thu,
with the highest PoPs near the coast as the low-level flow
becomes more westerly and dew points fall a bit. There is some
uncertainty regarding coverage (especially inland)...and areas
west of I-95 may very well be warm and dry on Thu. Convection
moves offshore by Thu night as the cold front ushers in drier
air. Highs Thu in the upper 80s. Dewpoints drop into the 50s for
most of the area (lower 60s near the coast) Fri and Sat with
highs in the lower 80s NW to mid-upper 80s SE Fri and low-mid
80s Sat. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm either day
given the upper level low just to the NW of the local area, but
chances are low. There is a slightly better chance for a shower
or storm Sun afternoon (25-30% NW) with highs in the mid 80s.
Chances become low once again on Mon (~15-20%) with highs in
the low- mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

A weak trough is centered over the region as of 18z. Primarily
VFR with SCT-BKN CU with bases of 3.5-5.0kft, with patchy MVFR
cigs ~3.0kft. Scattered showers are developing in vicinity of
the trough. Scattered showers and a few tstms are expected to
increase in coverage this aftn and early evening, primarily
from central VA through SE VA and NE NC. Mainly VFR with brief
IFR/MVFR vsby possible with a direct impact at any given
terminal. Showers/tstms dissipate later this evening and
overnight. Some fog is possible later tonight/early Tuesday
morning, with IFR/MVFR vsby possible, mainly at RIC, SBY, and
PHF. Isolated showers/tstms are expected Tuesday aftn/early
evening with the best chc at RIC and ECG. The wind this aftn
will be SW 5-10kt, but locally stronger and variable in and near
showers/tstms. The wind will become calm to very light tonight,
and then E to NE 5-10kt Tuesday.

Additional aftn/evening showers/tstms are possible Wednesday and
Thursday. Gradually improving conditions are expected Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday
 though south winds increase late in the day.

-Small Craft Advisory Conditions are possible on the Bay
 Thursday due to south winds ahead of a cold front.

-Daily chances for storms over the waters.

Southwest have persisted this afternoon and decreased to
generally 5 to 10 kt as expected. Generally light southwest
winds are expected through the overnight. Moisture has returned
to the area, so expect a chance for storms this afternoon. Some
storms will be capable of producing localized higher winds and
waves (this will be handled with SMWs if necessary). This chance
of showers and storms will persist each day into at least late
this week.

A weak backdoor cold front pushes south from the Delmarva
stalling somewhere near the Middle Bay and Chincoteague. This
will result in a wind shift over the MD waters to the NE and E
Tuesday morning with winds becoming more SE and E over much of
the Bay and coastal waters. Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt, but
will remain below SCA criteria. The front lifts north Wednesday
with winds becoming more SE and S, however winds do increase
becoming more gusty Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of
the next cold front. The front will not push across the area
Friday morning with winds become NW through the day. The better
surge with stronger NW winds will may not arrive until Late
Friday into Friday night and early Saturday.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches
Tuesday. The risk may increase to moderate Wednesday and
Thursday especially from Assateague north to Ocean City with
nearshore waves increasing to 3ft and an increasing southeast
flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the
higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
and again Thursday. Most tidal sites will likely be impacted by
very shallow flooding near the waterfront. Locations in the
northern Bay, such as Bishops Head, may bump into minor flood
stage as south winds increase late Wednesday and Thursday. The
following high tide cycle Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
may bring similar impacts as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...