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246
FXUS61 KAKQ 101756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough approaches the area later today, and
lingers closer to the coast through Tuesday, bringing isolated
to scattered showers and storms. High pressure settles across
the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and
Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

- Isolated showers and storms are possible across far northern
  portions of the area this evening into early tonight.

Current surface analysis depicts a cold front S of the local
area with an upper level trough moving towards the East Coast.
Temps as of 140 PM were in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew
points in the mid-upper 40s W and 50s SE.

An upper level trough to our NW will slowly approach the area
later today with a weak surface low developing over central VA.
Instability looks about zero through this evening so not
expecting any storms through the afternoon. CAMs show just
spotty shower development, mainly over the NW by late afternoon.
As such have only a slight chance for showers by late afternoon
for these areas. Highs today will be cooler, mainly in the mid
80s. By tonight, as the upper low tracks closer to the area,
along with weak sfc convergence as a weak surface low and cold
front moves through, PoPs increase to ~30% across the N, with
10-20% S. Models show some instability closer to the coast
tonight, so will maintain the mention of storms, however,
confidence in thunder is quite low. Lows tonight mid 50s NW to
mid 60s SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers or storms mainly near the coast
  Tuesday.

- Dry and seasonable with high pressure Wednesday

With the upper low still crossing the region on Tuesday, along
with weak sfc low pressure along the coast, expect scattered
showers/storms to develop from late Tue morning through Tue
afternoon near/along the coast. Raised PoPs to ~50% across NE NC
and far SE VA, and to ~40% over portions of the eastern shore.
Some locally heavy downpours will be possible, but widespread
higher QPF amounts are not expected given poorly organized
storms. Highs Tuesday will be slightly below avg, in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Sfc high pressure settles across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing dry conditions.
Comfortably cool Tue night with lows mostly in the 50s to lower
60s. Seasonable highs for Wed ranging from the mid 80s inland to
near 80F at the coast, with dew pts in the 50s keeping
conditions rather pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Turning hot late in the week but only moderate humidity levels
  will keep Heat index values near or just slightly above actual
  air temperatures.

- Mainly a dry period with a slight chance for late
  afternoon/evening showers and storms Friday (most areas), and
  Saturday (mainly south).

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds
east late in the week as an upper trough weakens across eastern
Canada. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along
the east coast, gradually sliding offshore. Temperatures will
increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday, with Friday
likely the hottest day of the period with deep mixing and 850 mb
temperatures rising to 18-19C. Highs Friday looks to average
into the mid to perhaps upper 90s well inland across central
VA/metro RIC, with low-mid 90s most other places. However, given
the continental origin of this airmass, dew pts continue to be
fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s (or possibly even the
upper 50s), which will act to mitigate the heat index from being
much warmer than the actual air temp. Heat Advisories look
unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper
90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri
afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night into Sat with
temps back in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland by next weekend,
and probably into the lower 80s near the coast. Additionally, a
few isolated showers/storms are possible Fri evening into early
Fri night (across N portions of the FA) as well as Sat
afternoon (across NE NC and SE VA). Lows look to be warmest Thu
and Fri nights as temps likely won`t drop below 70F in urban
locations, with mid to upper 60s over rural interior sections.
Lows by Sat night and Sun night will be a bit cooler, with low-
mid 60s inland and upper 60s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

SCT CU have developed across the area this afternoon with VFR
CIGs (5000-8000 ft). Expect SCT-BKN CU to linger into tonight
with isolated light showers developing across N portions of the
FA late this afternoon into tonight, moving E with time.
Confidence in any showers reaching RIC or SBY is too low to go
with more than VCSH in the TAFs. Additionally, while there is a
non-zero chance of thunder tonight, confidence is quite low. As
such, have kept VCTS out of the TAFs. Clouds clear late tonight
into Tue morning before CU increase in coverage by mid-late
morning (especially along the coast). Isolated to scattered
storms are expected to develop by early Tue afternoon along a
sea breeze across far SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore. Storms
may produce small to marginally severe hail as well as strong
winds and IFR VIS. The best chance is at ORF/ECG. Any
showers/storms taper off by Tue evening. In addition to the
convection, CIGs may drop to MVFR briefly Tue morning into early
Tue afternoon along the coast (potentially impacting
ORF/PHF/ECG). Winds were generally W 5-10 kt this afternoon.
Winds become onshore (due to a seabreeze) at ORF and perhaps
ECG/PHF later this afternoon before becoming light and variable
tonight. Winds become N 5-10 kt Tue, becoming E (due to the
seabreeze) along the coast Tue afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather Tue
night through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA prevail through at least mid week, but stronger winds and
higher waves will be possible with convection.

- Elevated winds and waves possible late in the week ahead of a cold
front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches Monday, potentially
trending toward moderate Tuesday across southern beaches.


Yesterday`s cold front has pushed offshore as of early morning sfc
analysis. Behind it, strong high pressure from central Canada is
building toward the Mid-Atlantic. Latest wind obs are showing
generally light winds out of the NNW, with a few sites on the
eastern side of the Ches Bay showing speeds on either side of 10kt.
Wind direction will vary through the day. Winds turn westerly (5-
10kt) during the morning, then development of a sea breeze turns the
flow onshore for at least southern coastal waters during the
afternoon and evening. A secondary front crosses through the area
tonight, turning winds back to the N, becoming 10-15kt before
sunrise on Tues. Low pressure is then expected to develop offshore
Tues and winds become northeasterly. While the forecast calls for 10-
15kt, can certainly see the potential for slightly stronger winds
Tues morning if the low is stronger than modeled. Will note that the
local wind probs show less than 10% for sustained winds of 18kt or
greater, so SCAs do not seem likely at this point. Periods of
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
with the secondary front and low pressure, which could lead to
briefly higher winds and waves/seas. Winds turn light and northerly
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low moves away from the coast
and high pressure fills in. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday
evening, turning winds to the SE at ~10kt. Elevated winds will be
possible ahead of a potential cold front at the end of the week, but
looks sub-SCA for now.

Seas are around 2ft this morning and waves are 1ft or less. Seas
stay at 2ft through Wed, but waves in the bay will increase to 1-2ft
with northerly winds Tues morning. Seas may increase to 3-4ft and
waves to 1-3ft late in the week ahead of a potential cold front. The
rip risk looks mainly low, though may trend toward moderate across
srn beaches Tuesday w/ nearshore waves 2-3 ft and NNE winds 10-20
mph.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AM