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528
FXUS61 KAKQ 070729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Behind a cold front, cooler, drier conditions push into the
region for Friday and Saturday. A weak cold front crosses
Sunday, bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
storms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key message:

- Hot, but much less humid, today behind a cold front. Mostly clear
skies expected through tonight.

Early morning sfc analysis shows a cold front entering southeastern
portions of the FA. Precip has largely come to an end as of latest
radar aside from isolated light echos in southside Hampton Roads and
Northeast NC. Broken to overcast skies persist in the southeast, but
skies are clearing out behind the front. A warm, but pleasant, day
is expected as sfc high pressure builds toward the region from the
SW. WNW flow setting up aloft and westerly flow at the sfc will
bring in drier air, offering a reprieve from the humidity. Dewpoints
are expected to drop into the low-mid 50s inland and around 60 at
the coast (mid 60s in far SE). Trended warmer with the temps today
with highs likely to reach in the upper 80s E of I-95 and mid-80s to
the W. Based on statistical guidance and thicknesses, a few spots
may even touch 90 this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny aside
from some afternoon Cu. Breezy westerly winds gust 15-25mph. Skies
stay clear overnight and winds will be light. Temps will drop into
the mid-upper 50s inland and low-mid 60s at the coast.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather remains Saturday.

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Remaining dry Saturday as high pressure continues to build toward
the region and flow aloft become quasi-zonal over the Mid-Atlantic.
Temps will be a few degrees cooler than Fri with highs in the low-
mid 80s. Low humidity remains with RHs dropping to ~35% during the
afternoon. Likely more clouds than Fri, but staying mostly sunny.
Lows Sat night will be in the low-mid 60s. A weak cold front is
still expected to pass through on Sunday. Still not expecting a lot
in terms of precip. Isolated showers (and perhaps rumble of thunder)
will be possible in the afternoon. Best chance for rain, though,
will be along the coast late Sunday evening. Even still, PoPs cap
out around 35%. Cloud cover will increase through the day Sunday.
Temps likely climb to around 90 in the SE and mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. Lows Sun night range from the upper 50s in the far NW to
the upper 60s in the far SE. Monday is where uncertainty starts to
increase due to synoptic differences between global models
(discussed further in long term section). May see a stray shower on
Mon due to a potential trough axis swinging through, but should stay
mostly dry. Highs will be in the low 80s in the NW and on the
Eastern Shore and mid 80s elsewhere. Lows Mon night once again range
from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Large differences in guidance lead to uncertainty in next
  week`s forecast

There is much uncertainty in the long term period due to rather
dramatic differences in the global models. The last two runs of the
GFS (18z/06 and 00z/07) bring an upper low from central Canada into
the upper mid-west on Tuesday, then pushes it up toward the Great
Lakes and Northeast mid-late week. This solutions is being supported
by a slight trend in the 00z GEFS toward the recent deterministic
output. If correct, this would mean a rainy mid-week period.
Meanwhile, latest ECMWF and Canadian runs deepen the early week
trough offshore and build in a ridge from the W, placing the local
area in a dry NW flow. For now, leaning more toward consistency and
the NBM until certainty increases, which means SChc PoPs Tues
through Wed night. Regarding temps, looking a bit cooler for Tues
with highs in the upper 70s NW to low 80s SE. Back up to the mid-
upper 80s for Wed and Thurs. Lows look to be in the low-mid 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...

Precip has largely come to an end with only light showers near
ECG, which should push out of the area shortly. A cold front is
crossing through the forecast area, scattering out clouds behind
it. BKN skies at SE terminals to start the 06z TAF period, but
should go SCT by the morning. Winds are turning to the W behind
the front at 5-10kt. Expect mostly clear skies through Friday
with FEW- SCT afternoon Cu possible. Westerly wind will gust
15-20kt in the afternoon. VFR persists into Saturday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Friday night into Saturday behind the cold
front. Another cold front will bring a slight chc of
showers/tstms later Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms
lingers in to Monday, but overall VFR conditions should prevail
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- No headlines in effect for the waters, a few brief surges of
  wind are expected, the first late tonight/early Saturday, and
  another late Sunday night/early Monday.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches expected today into
  the weekend.

A weak cold front is currently approaching the waters early this
morning, and will cross the area through sunrise. There is no
cold air with this initial boundary, so aside from modest
pressure rises and a slightly drier airmass, winds will remain
below SCA criteria, averaging around 10 kt today from the WNW in
the wake of the front. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas
offshore running 2-3 ft. By tonight, there is a somewhat more significant
surge of cooler/drier air, allowing winds to turn more to the
NNW and increase to around 15 kt with gusts to ~20kt for a few
hrs. Pressure rises are still rather minimal (4mb/6hr) between
00-06Z tonight so overall this looks too weak to raise SCA
headlines and will more likely just need a short-fused MWS to
highlight about a 2 hr period with gusts to 20 kt+ in the Bay.

Thereafter, expect mostly quiet marine conditions for the rest
of the weekend, the flow becomes SW once again on Sunday ahead
of the next cold front which should cross the waters Sunday
evening. SW winds on Sunday could gust to around 20 kt over the
rivers w/ better mixing, but overall this looks to remain below
SCA criteria. Another marginal surge of northerly winds is then
expected Sunday night/early Monday, again probably falling just
short of SCA criteria across the Bay (and well below criteria on
the ocean). Waves/seas will average 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft,
respectively, into early next week.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Will allow the current crest of high tide at Bishop`s Head to
occur (staying below Minor Flood threshold), then will cancel
the Coastal Flood Statement for bay- facing portions of the MD
Eastern Shore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...