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847
FXUS61 KBGM 160750
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
350 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure has built into the region with much warmer
conditions expected through this week. Hot and humid conditions
expected through much of the week with isolated thunderstorms.
Cooler and more unsettled weather will return next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
940 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track as temperatures have fallen into
the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. As expected, cirrus
clouds have entered western NY and will slowly continue to move
to the east. Manually edited overnight lows up a degree or two
over the western Finger Lakes to hopefully capture some warmer
temps vs. east of I-81 that should be clear for longer.


620 PM Update...

Quite the wonderful Saturday evening is playing out across the
CWA with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the
mid to upper 40s. The fair weather cumulus clouds have mostly
dissipated as daytime heating is over. Clear skies and light
winds will allow temps to fall quickly once the sun sets.
Looking at satellite images, it looks like we will not be as
clear as originally thought as some high level cirrus clouds are
cresting over the ridge axis to our west and should start to
move over areas east of I-81 during the late evening/early
overnight hours. Still unclear how far east the clouds will make
it, but because of this, overnight temps were bumped up a degree
or two, especially west of I-81. The rest of the forecast
remains on track.

145 PM Update...

With the upper level ridge axis just east of the region today,
cooler and drier northwest flow has allowed for comfortable
conditions this afternoon with lower dew points and a few clouds
to block the sun at times. Temperatures have been running above
models and forecast so a blend of the NBM 90th have been used
as well as a few degrees added in the Finger Lakes region to
account for the current trend.

As the trough axis moves east and upper level ridging begins to
build in, a fairly strong surface high moves into the region
with calm winds and clear skies expected tonight. This will
allow for efficient radiational cooling. What the dew points
mix to this afternoon will likely be what the temperatures
radiate to overnight. Blended in the NBM 10th for temperatures
to get closer to what the current dew points are out there
already this afternoon. Fog formation is likely in the valleys
of the upper Susquehanna river valley and Delaware River with
the clear skies. The NAM wants to really radiate out in some of
the higher valleys of the Catskills as well as through the hills
in the Southern Finger Lakes and CNY with pockets falling into
the upper 30s. This is unlikely as fog formation should end up
holding lows somewhere in the low to mid 40s at the coolest.

Tomorrow begins the big warming trend as upper level ridging
really builds in with southerly flow developing in the low
levels. This will begin to advect in warmer temperatures aloft
as well as bring in better low level moisture with dew points
increasing through the day. Still dew points should not rise
much into the 50s so it will still feel comfortable tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

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335 AM Update...

Tuesday will see the heat and humidity increasing across the
region. Surface high pressure will be stationed out in the
Atlantic with warm and moist SW return flow pumping into the
area on Tuesday. Heat index will likely approach triple digits,
especially in the urban areas during the afternoon hours. There
is still a little uncertainty with temperatures, as isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and this
would ease the heat for some. Even so, a heat advisory is
looking likely for most of the NY counties on Tuesday as
criteria is 95F for NY. In PA, the criteria for an advisory
starts at 100F and there will certain be some potential in the
urban areas of the Wyoming Valley for this value to be exceeded.
For now, will continue to highlight the heat threat in the HWO.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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345 AM Update...

The heat and humidity will persist throughout the work week. As
mentioned in the short term period, heat headlines may be
needed, however there is still some uncertainty. Forecast
soundings are showing over 2000 J/kg of CAPE depending where the
high pressure actually sets up will determine what type of
convective activity we will see. There is some concern towards
the end of the week as we are on the periphery of the high and
flow aloft turns a little more west-northwesterly. The stronger
westerly flow does look like it stays further north in Canada,
but definitely worth watching, as heat waves and stronger NW
flow can lead to strong convective complexes to develop.

Conditions will continue to slightly improve through the end of
the week and into the weekend as 500mb heights slowly fall.
Some 80s will finally be sprinkled in with the 90s for Friday
and with even slightly cooler temps for Saturday. Lows will drop
into the 60s both nights. A slow moving cold front will pass
through late in the week or at the start of the weekend, with
more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with this
frontal passage.

Finally, will also have to watch what happens with moisture
from a tropical wave system that models have pushing into the SE
U.S. at the end of the week. Some model guidance shows the
moisture riding up the approaching front and bringing some
heavy rain into our region towards the end of the next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light/variable winds and mostly VFR conditions expected at all
terminals through the period. Temperatures look to cool down to,
or beyond the crossover temp at ELM, and TEMPO light fog has
been added to the TAF for the pre-dawn hours.

Winds will become southerly tomorrow, but remaining at or below
10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Monday morning...Mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...KL