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402
FXUS61 KCAR 060646
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
246 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly approach today and
Friday and cross the region this weekend into Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A large scale omega block remains in place over the region. The
forecast area will move into the col between departing
vertically stacked lows in the Maritimes and an approaching
upper low digging into the Great Lakes region. Within the col,
there is no energy moving through to spark any convective
activity today. A few showers are possible in the Moosehead Lake
and Katahdin regions, but thunderstorms are not anticipated.

The surface high has now moved into the Maritimes and a
southeasterly flow on the backside of the high will increase low
level moisture. That will be manifested in increasing humidity
inland as dewpoints will generally be over the 60F threshold.
Closer to the coast, the onshore flow and moisture will likely
generate cloud cover much of the day and high temperatures in
the 60s. In contrast, inland areas north of the Downeast region
can expect another day of highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight, the low level moisture towards the coast will
thicken and move inland. A low level jet ahead of an approaching
occluded front will draw the low clouds northward across the
entire forecast area by later tonight.  Drizzle is possible
along with fog near the coast. The slow moving and weakening
occlusion will move into Maine late tonight and have increased
PoPs in the far southwestern portion of the CWA by late tonight.
However, it does not appear to be a big rainmaker as we are
expecting a max of a tenth of an inch of rain in the Moosehead
Lake region by early Friday morning and no rainfall for much of
northern and eastern Maine. Lows tonight will be mostly in the
low to mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Upper level low pressure will approach on Friday lifting an occluded
front north across the area. Moisture advecting up from the south
combined with upper level divergence and a deformation field will
produce a band of showers over the region. The best chance for
showers will be across western areas on Friday then up over the rest
of the region Friday night. Low pressure, both at the surface and in
the upper levels, will remain to our west, just north of the Great
Lakes on Saturday. A trough of low pressure, both surface and aloft,
will extend east from this low across our area. Surface converge
will continue to work with moisture in the region to produce
showers, mostly over central and northern parts of the area. Cool
air pooled aloft from the upper low will combine with relatively
warm and humid conditions at the surface to produce some thin CAPE
extending up to around 20K ft on Saturday. This will introduce the
chance for some embedded thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon
over central parts of the region.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will continue to approach
Saturday night into Sunday resulting in a continued chance for
showers. The best chance for showers will be over central and
northern areas. However, some of the forecast models are showing an
embedded shortwave and jet max rounding the bottom of the trough
midday Sunday which has the chance to bring a cluster of showers
through southern areas. Low pressure, surface and aloft, will shift
Northeast of our region Sunday night. Low clouds, and a chance of
showers, mostly north, will continue. The upper low will begin to
decay and continue away to the northeast along with surface low
pressure on Monday. A weak cold front pivoting around the system
will push into the area Monday afternoon likely producing showers
and scattered thunderstorms.

Upper level low pressure will continue weakening and moving
northeast and away on Tuesday. However, weak hang back troughiness
and some moisture remaining pooled aloft will continue to result in
a chance for lingering spotty showers, mostly central and north. The
low will finally dissipate Tuesday night with the remnants
continuing northeast over Labrador.

By Wednesday, an upper ridge will be building into the Northeast.
This will bring a return of a partly to mostly sunny sky and very
warm temperatures. An isolated shower, or late day thunderstorm,
will be possible Wednesday afternoon with the best chances for a
shower over the highlands.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Fog will affect sites such as GNR, Eastport, Machias,
BHB, and Bangor this morning. While fog will burn off quickly
inland this morning, the fog is expected to lift into persistent
IFR cigs along the coast. These cigs will move inland tonight
towards BGR, GNR, MLT...and HUL by late night. Winds will be
light. Thunderstorms are not expected.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...MVFR to IFR in the morning, then MVFR in the afternoon.
Light E wind.

Friday night...MVFR, possibly dropping to IFR late. Light E wind.

Saturday...MVFR. Light E wind north and light SW wind south.

Saturday night...MVFR dropping to IFR. S wind.

Sunday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR south late. Light S to SW
wind.

Sunday night...MVFR. Light SW wind.

Monday...MVFR, possibly IFR at times north. Light SW wind south and
NW wind north.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Fog will become increasingly likely today into
tonight as moist air moves over the cold waters. Winds will be
southeasterly, slowly becoming easterly tonight. Speeds will
increase tonight with some gusts exceeding 15 kt offshore. Seas
will build slightly in response...going from near 1 ft towards 2
to 3 feet by late tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through the coming
weekend and into early next week. Moist air over the waters may
result in a bit of fog and mist at times Friday through the weekend.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...MCW/Bloomer
Marine...MCW/Bloomer