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859
FXUS61 KILN 311317
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
917 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions
today. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A large area of surface high pressure of Canadian origin will
be centered over the area today. In the dry airmass only expect
a few cumulus clouds and thin high level clouds. Under mostly
sunny skies and light southeast winds temperatures will rise to
highs in the mid to upper 70s. These readings are within a
couple of degrees of the normal values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Narrow mid level ridge builds into the area with the center of
surface high pressure shifting east of the region tonight.
Expect mostly clear skies this evening with an increase in high
level clouds late. Lows to drop to readings ranging from the
upper 40s east to the mid/upper 50s west.

Mid level shortwave to approach the area Saturday. This feature
is weakening and generally slower. Have kept the morning dry and
only allow chance pops into the west during the afternoon. If
the current trend continues these pops may need to be slowed
even more. High temperatures to range from the mid/upper 70s
west to the lower 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rainfall spreading into the CWA from the west ahead of an upper s/w
Saturday night will end from nw-se on Sunday. Dry weather under
weak ridging behind the s/w will occur through Monday, possibly
overnight.

While deterministic models show little odds of rain overnight Monday
due to an upper ridge still in place, NBM is pushing rain chances
during this time, increasing it through Tuesday and lingering the
chances through Thursday. Significant timing differences in mass
fields of GFS and Euro continue for the remainder of the forecast
even though the pattern for both is fairly similar. Other models and
apparently the ensembles throw more than timing/placement into the
mix with large scale pattern differences coming into play. This ends
up keeping at least low chances of precip in the forecast through
Thursday evening. It is more than likely that some dry periods will
occur between systems but uncertainty noted above does not give a
large enough indication to put a lack of pops in any period with
confidence.

Sunday`s highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, generally a little
cooler than Saturday due to the expected rainfall. Monday through
Wednesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s, with Thursday being a
bit cooler within a few degrees on either side of 80. Uniform lows
Sat night near 61-62 in a moisture-laden atmosphere will drop
slightly lower Sun night on either side of 60 with drier air. Mon
night-Wed night lows in the mid to upper 60s should drop to the
lower 60s for Thursday night.

Temperatures in the forecast beyond the first few periods are also
dependent on what systems move through and when they do. Attm,
warmer forecast is the more likely scenario until a frontal passage
Wed night or Thursday knocks readings down at the end of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure of Canadian origin will provide dry
weather and VFR conditions to the area.

Some high level clouds attempt to move in from the west today,
but drier air will limit coverage. Light surface winds will
generally be out of the east at less than 10 kts today and then
southeast at 5 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Campbell/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR