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576
FXUS63 KIND 111310
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
910 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today, with isolated convection possible mainly north

- Times of numerous showers / scattered storms this weekend

- Continued humid and very warm/hot into next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 908 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Expect slightly warmer and more humid conditions today. Look
for highs to range from the uppers 80s to low 90s. Meanwhile,
dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s should make it feel more like
temperatures are well in the 90s.

Subtle ridging building in aloft will mostly limit precipitation
chances today. However, low POPs (less than 20%) remain across the
far north as remnant outflow boundaries from dying convection over
northern Indiana may help promote isolated shower or thunderstorm
development. Further south, mentionable POPs are not warranted due
to very weak forcing. A brief shower or even an isolated storm
cannot be completely ruled out though.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Early This Morning...

A surface boundary looks to have pushed north of central Indiana
early this morning, with light southwest winds noted along with
higher dewpoints most areas. Decaying convection was moving east
from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with additional
convection firing in northwest Illinois.

An upper impulse in the upper flow was helping generate the
convection, and this will move east/northeast into lower Michigan.
This will keep most of the forcing out of central Indiana. However,
cannot rule out some of the dying convection from sneaking into
northern portions of the area early this morning. Will keep some low
PoPs there.

Today...

The upper flow will become northwest to southeast across the area
today, and upper heights will rise. Mid level temperatures will also
rise accordingly. This will help keep convection at bay for much of
the forecast area today.

However, potential old outflow boundaries from overnight/early
morning convection could be across far northern portions of central
Indiana. These could allow for some isolated convection to still
fire there today. Will keep some slight chance PoPs north today.

Even though odds of convection will be below mentioning elsewhere
for reasons stated above, odds are not zero, and an isolated shower
or storm could still pop up.

Cirrus from early morning convection will thin out today, and
diurnal cumulus will pop up. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures will peak from around 90 to the lower 90s most areas.
With the higher dewpoints in place, heat indices will be in the
middle and upper 90s.

Tonight...

By the start of the tonight period, odds of isolated convection will
be too low to mention. Much of the night will be quiet, but late in
the period an upper trough and surface boundary will approach from
the west.

These may be enough to allow a few showers or storms to reach the
far northwest portion of the forecast area very late tonight. Will
have some slight chance PoPs for that.

Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 70s with muggy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Saturday through Sunday night...

The weekend will feature a rather weak H500 wave and its
corresponding cool front slowly crossing the Midwest. This will
present two opportunities for numerous showers, if not conditional
convective threats...with latest guidance continuing to place most
of central Indiana within the very warm and oppressive air mass.  A
few differences between the two set-ups will include... Satuday`s
very low shear, and any decent mid-level lapse rates delayed until
evening hours, albeit following impressive afternoon
instability...and Sunday`s at times adequate shear, lackluster lapse
rates, and possibly up to 3000 J/kg CAPE if mid-level ceilings can
scatter out late in the day.  Therefore, suspect numerous showers
Saturday with scattered afternoon downpours, and at least a few
strong t-storms during mainly evening hours.  Less confidence
Sunday, yet inordinate precipitable water values over 2.00 inches
for most counties and overall slow flow aloft will promote heavy
rainfall and localized flooding, especially south of I-70...with a
few marginally strong/severe cells possible.

Monday through Thursday...

Any northerly flow behind the weekend wave should be brief during
the early week, with perhaps slightly lower temps/dwpts...and mainly
dry conditions through Monday and perhaps into Tuesday.  Remainder
of the long term should be more rounds of the recent humid, summery
pattern...characterized by upper 80s to around 90F afternoons and
diurnally-driven convection.  Forecast certainty decreases for the
late workweek when noticeably cooler air not too far to our
northwest will try to plunge into the Midwest, although model
uncertainty/inconsistencies remains in timing and southern
progression of any Canadian high pressure into the late week.  At
the very least, more active weather may be in store around the
Thursday timeframe when the corresponding, possibly quasi-stationary
front may drag across the region...focusing increased shower/t-storm
chances.

Heat index values during the long term should be highest Saturday
with widespread upper 90s...and again around next Wednesday`s
timeframe when at least one day could bring mainly upper 90s/low
100s values across the CWA.  Indianapolis` normal max/min will
maintain the year`s peak values through July 22...85/67.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Impacts:

- Low probability of convection this afternoon at KLAF
- S-SW wind gusts up to 20kt this afternoon.

Discussion:

Morning convection looks to remain north of the TAF sites so will
have no mention.

Diurnal cumulus will return late this morning into the afternoon. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible near KLAF this afternoon, but odds
are too low to put in the TAF.

Some wind gusts near 20kt will occur as well Friday afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50