841
FXAK68 PAFC 091330
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Strong southeasterly flow is continuing to move through
Southcentral this morning. Gusty winds peaked last night, but most
areas are still breezy with momentary periods of light winds.
Overall, the winds should come down a little more later this
morning before increasing again in the afternoon. Winds are not
expected to be as strong as they were last night. Additionally,
dry conditions with low RHs were observed across the region
yesterday, and while RHs today will still be on the drier side for
portions of the northern Susitna Valley and the Copper River
Valley, RHs, temperatures, and winds should gradually improve.

Although there was a brief lull in the precipitation overnight
for Kodiak, moderate to heavy rain is returning this morning. Over
the next 24 hours, expect an additional 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.
There is about a 20 percent chance for rainfall to exceed 2 inches
by Monday morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect until late
Sunday night. The front will lift towards the northern Gulf later
on Sunday, leaving on light, lingering showers for Kodiak.
Forecast rainfall between Monday morning and Tuesday afternoon is
approximately around half inch. Elsewhere, precipitation will be
little to none as precipitation becomes downsloped for the lee of
the mountains.

The surface low sitting south of Alaska Peninsula will move
little, but is expected to weaken gradually. Shortwave troughs
will lift north from the low and then pass westward as the
embedded shortwaves round the low. Monday could bring a few light
showers for the Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley, but
chances will be greater on Tuesday though. Meanwhile, chances
decrease for Kodiak Island and the coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

rux

&&


SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

Unsettled weather persists through the weekend as several lows
merge southwest of Kodiak Island, sending pinwheeling upper level
shortwaves across all but the Western Aleutian Islands and Bering
Sea. For today, rain showers will continue but will gradually
become less widespread. Strong, gusty winds across much of
Southwest will be the primary threat for today. We continue to
expect gusts of 45-55 mph for interior Bristol Bay. Downsloping
off the Alaska Range today will bring clearer skies to Middle
Kuskokwim Valley and the Western Alaska Range. High temperatures
into the low 70s are forecast for these areas, which could lead to
instability that helps mix down drier air from aloft.

From Monday through Tuesday, conditions will improve as the low
near Kodiak Island weakens and a ridge builds in from the west.
The next system approaches the Western Aleutians on Tuesday
afternoon, heralding a return to more active weather after a spell
of calmer conditions for the Western Aleutians/Bering. By
Wednesday morning, the system`s front is expected to reach the
Western Aleutians, bringing with it rain and southeasterly winds
up to small craft.

-AF/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Upper level ridging extends from northern Alaska into the Bering
Sea by mid week, with two upper level lows on either side, one
situated over the Western Aleutians and the other in the North
Pacific. Multiple shortwaves will cycle around the Pacific low and
move over Southcentral and portions of the Alaska Peninsula,
bringing rounds of rainfall through at least Friday. High pressure
dips south over Southcentral by next weekend which is likely to
bring about drier conditions. The system developing out west will
push its front across the Aleutians towards Southwest Alaska
through next weekend. Areas of small craft to gale force winds are
likely along the front as well as localized areas of heavy
rainfall. There is decent model agreement initially but
discrepancies quickly increase by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period.
There is high confidence that Turnagain Arm winds will bend back
into west Anchorage later this afternoon, starting roughly between
20 and 22z. Southeast gusts as high as 30 kts will be possible
this afternoon until winds begin to weaken this evening, then shut
off entirely by tonight as the core of southeast winds bends
south and away from the terminal.

&&


$$