261
FXUS61 KALY 130526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures return today with dry conditions
anticipated as high pressure dominates the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase heading into tonight ahead of an upper-
level disturbance and cold front that will track through the region
tomorrow. Additional showers and thunderstorms, some potentially
becoming severe, are anticipated across much of the region tomorrow
along and ahead of the front. Dry, seasonable weather then returns
for the weekend before Summer-like heat can be expected early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 125 AM EDT...Clear skies prevail across eastern
New York and western New England this morning. As such,
temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with
pockets of low 40s at higher elevations. GOES-16 Night Fog
indicates some light fog development in lower-lying areas of the
SW Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills, so added patches of fog
to the weather forecast to account for this and the anticipation
of additional development in sheltered areas throughout the
night. Other than minor adjustments to temperatures and sky
cover to match recent obs and trends, the forecast remains in
good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 1007 PM EDT...IR satellite imagery shows that the
widespread clouds that were over the region today have broken up
thanks to the loss of daytime heating and drier air making its
way into the area. Skies are now fairly clear and with high
pressure building into the area, the expectation is for clear
skies to continue through much of the overnight hours, along
with light to calm winds. With the good radiational cooling,
some patchy fog may develop in sheltered areas, but this doesn`t
look too widespread.

Otherwise, quiet weather continues with lows falling back into
the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper-level ridging will be in place on Thursday with
surface high pressure located to our south and east. This will
result in a southerly low-level flow advecting in a warmer air
mass. 850 hPa temperatures will rise to around +15C. Partly to
mostly sunny conditions will result in highs rising into the 80s
in the valleys and the mid to upper 70s across the higher
elevations.

An upper-level trough and surface cold front will begin to
approach the region starting Thursday night with a prefrontal
trough axis head of the cold front. A few showers and rumbles of
thunder are possible for areas north and west of Albany late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front on Friday. A
general consensus is that areas just to the south and east of
Albany will be most favored for some strong to severe
thunderstorms with the cold front already crossing areas farther
north and west by the midday hours. SBCAPE values may be in the
1000-1500 J/kg range in the warm sector along with 40-50 kt of
0-6km shear. This could support some organized convection
capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A slight risk for
severe thunderstorms is located across areas south and east of
Albany on the Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
Precipitable water values approaching 1.50 inches could also
lead to locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will vary across the region due in part to the
passage of the cold front with values ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s across the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 80s
across the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT.

Storms will depart the region Friday evening with just a few
lingering light rain showers into the overnight. Humidity levels
will begin to fall behind the front. Lows will drop back into
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A beautiful weekend is in store as Canadian high pressure builds
across the region. This will result in mostly clear weather with
near seasonable highs and low humidity. Thereafter, a strong
upper-level ridge will build across the region and bring very
warm to hot and humid weather. There remains some uncertainty
with the strength and location of the ridge, but the potential
for a period of highs in the 90s in the valleys and mid to upper
80s across the higher elevations is increasing. 500 hPa height
anomalies could reach +2 STDEV. The increase in humidity will
result in potentially dangerous feels- like temperatures over
100 degrees. There is the possibility for an upper level
shortwave or two to track up and over the ridge and bring the
potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms each day
Monday through Wednesday but the timing and track of these
remain uncertain. For now, will keep PoPs in the slight chance
to low chance range.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure in control of the weather.  Light winds and a mostly
clear sky is allowing for radiational cooling and some saturation at
the surface. Some MIFG expected at KALB and KPOU between about 08Z-
12Z.  Some intervals of IFR visibilities at KGFL and MVFR
visibilities at KPSF through about 12Z.

Once the fog lifts, just some intervals of thin high clouds through
much of the day and a few to scattered clouds between 3500-9000
feet late this morning through this evening. High clouds will
thicken through the evening as well.

Calm winds through mid morning, will become south to southwest at 10
Kt or less mid morning, continuing through the afternoon and
evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis