Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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274 FXUS63 KBIS 111356 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 856 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures are expected today. Highs on Wednesday will be the warmest of the week, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Some locations in the southern James River Valley could reach the lower 90s. - Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight, with additional showers and storms (30% chance) Wednesday night and Thursday. Higher and more widespread precipitation chances are then forecast Friday night through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The forecast remains on track with mostly sunny skies and quiet weather this morning. UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Deep low is in south central Manitoba, with breezy westerly winds in north central North Dakota from the surface pressure gradient. A few low clouds are drifting across the International Border under the influence of the cyclonic flow, so did adjust sky cover with this update. Otherwise quiet weather to start the day, with current temperatures in the 50s. Some of the most recent high-res guidance is showing slightly higher amounts of instability tonight (although still relatively low), so made sure to have mention of thunder across our southern counties, although still expecting any activity to be very isolated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A compact shortwave trough and closed low were analyzed over southwest Manitoba this morning, with a frontal boundary exiting the eastern portion of the forecast area. Breezy winds are ongoing across the north central under the influence of a tightened pressure gradient from the surface low. Morning lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with limited cloud cover to start the day. Under the cyclonic flow aloft today/tonight, isolated showers are possible with any impulses that move through, with blended POPs producing slight (20%) chances across the far north and south central this evening, and across the southwest overnight. Both today and tonight the main caveat with rain potential is that forecast soundings are showing high clouds bases (over 10k feet) and a significant dry layer above the surface, so either very light rain or virga is the most likely scenario. Highs today will be near to slightly above normal, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The synoptic flow becomes more zonal on Wednesday, with an approaching embedded wave and a low- level thermal ridge trying to build in. The timing of the upper wave and attendant cold front will determine how warm temperatures get, with forecast highs in the upper 70s northwest (where the front reaches first) to the upper 80s southern James River Valley. It is not out of the question that we see some highs in the lower 90s in this area, especially if the front slows up at all. The timing of the front will also be critical for any thunderstorm potential. Deterministic guidance is advertising bulk shear of 40-50 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, with CSU Machine Learning indicating higher hail and tornado probabilities just east of the forecast area. The Day 2 outlook has the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) just clipping LaMoure and Dickey Counties, which seems appropriate given what current high-res guidance is advertising. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday across the far north and south as additional impulses move through the mean zonal flow, although POPs have been changing the past few forecast cycles as the impulses are low predictability. A shallow ridge is progged to build in Thursday into Friday, while a deep upper low begins developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement on southwest flow aloft persisting across the Northern Plains through the weekend, helping an active pattern set up starting Friday. Blended POPs begin increasing during the day Friday and remain relatively stable through the weekend as the aforementioned closed low starts to sink south across the western CONUS. Southerly low-level flow to start the weekend does look to increase available instability, and machine learning probs highlight persistent (but low) probabilities for severe weather through the weekend. Temperatures are favored to be relatively steady, with highs generally in the lower 70s to lower 80s, before potentially a slight cool down to start next work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Some low VFR ceilings are present in north central North Dakota this morning, but low confidence in going MVFR at KMOT. Breezy west to northwest winds will persist across the north central (KMOT) and James River Valley (KJMS) today, with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Winds will begin to diminish this evening, with clearing skies. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight across the far north central and far south, but too low of confidence in impacting any terminals to include with this update. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones