152
FXUS64 KBMX 110856
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

A cold front is well to our south now with high pressure and drier
air settling over the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys. Conditions
across Central Alabama for the next couple days will consist of
mostly clear skies, with warm afternoon temperatures and cooler
overnight temperatures due to lower humidity. Highs today and
tomorrow will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows
tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Wednesday night through Monday.

The main story for the long term period will be the combination of
hot and dry conditions, with the possibility of no rain through
Monday or beyond. A warming trend will take hold on Thursday with
widespread low 90s for highs as an upper-level ridge starts to move
in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot
and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s
on Friday and the upper 90s in some areas on Saturday. Dewpoints
being in the 60s should keep heat indices from being excessively
high.

By Sunday, significant disagreement becomes evident in model
guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the
associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF has trended even
farther west with this system while a ridge holds firm over the
Southeast CONUS. This would lead to continued hot and dry conditions
through Monday. However, the GFS tracks this system into Louisiana
and Mississippi, bringing increased rain chances to Alabama. For
this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier
scenario portrayed in previous forecasts.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as drier air
settles over the area. Cirrus will stream across the area with
calm winds overnight. Northerly winds increase to 5-6kts Tuesday
morning.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure settles
over the region. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to range
between 30 to 40 percent, but remain above critical levels.
Recovery RH values tonight will range from 75 to 95 percent.
20-foot winds will be at or less than 5 mph, from a north to
northeasterly heading through Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    85  59  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  85  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      88  65  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  88  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  64  91  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...14