703
FXUS64 KBMX 090541
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Surface temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s to mid 70s
late this evening. Therefore, we are in line with hitting the 60s
area wide overnight. An outflow boundary from the convection in
the north may reach the far northern counties late tonight. Will
keep a small pop in just before sunrise in case any activity can
get going before sunrise. This boundary will linger around
northern areas on Sunday with scattered to isolated mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches
Sunday evening leaving a few boundaries for potential convection.
Although the surface winds are rather light decreasing surface
convergence and a mid level ridge is close by, there is enough
instability to allow some convection to develop. These storms will
have the capability of producing some damaging winds as they move
through from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Little in
the way of changes to the forecast at this time.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Key messages:

- Potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday north and
  central with damaging winds the primary concern.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging centered to our southwest looks to contract in
size to a limited extent overnight while a mid-level impulse is
modeled to move east of the Central Rockies over the Central
Plains. Meanwhile, the upper low over Southeast Canada and the
Interior portion of New England will remain in place while a
longwave trough swings south out of Southern Canada.

Expect Fair skies central and south with more clouds over the
north as a disturbance moves east over the Central Plains and
toward the Mid-South area overnight. After midnight, some shower
and thunderstorm activity will move southeast into the northern
portion of the state and at least the outflow from this activity
should enter our far northern counties in the pre-dawn hours,
resulting in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
during this time. Winds will be from the south from 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range lower 60s in the northeast to the upper
60s west.

Sunday.

The mid-level ridge looks to flatten further just to our south on
Sunday while a mid-level disturbance moves southeast over much of
Tennessee, far northern Alabama and far northern Georgia in the
morning, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Yet
another mid-level disturbance is modeled moving off the
Continental Divide and over the Central Plains in the morning and
this feature will also move southeast over the Mid-South Region
toward mid-afternoon and will provide support for additional
convective activity later in the day across our northern and
central counties. Residual dry air aloft will largely confine much
of the activity to generally near and north of Interstate 20, but
this environment with high temperatures in the 90s and increasing
dew points will provide ample low-level instability, resulting in
potential for some strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds. Winds will be from the southwest to west at 5-10
mph and high temperatures will range from around 90 far north and
in the higher elevations northeast to the mid 90s south, west and
central.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

HREF suggests a risk for a couple severe thunderstorms will
continue into Sunday evening per precipitation probabilities and
severe parameters. The extent is to be seen pending trends earlier
in the day (sufficient support from upper-level flow, outflow
propagation, amongst other things). A level 1 out of 5 risk is
advertised into Sunday evening.

Another surge of lower dew points is expected through midweek
before gradually climbing later in the week as a potential area of
low pressure evolves atop the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rain/storm
chances may also climb for parts of the region pending the
manifestation and track of this potential area of low pressure.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

VFR conditions for the next 12 to 15 hours. A band of showers and
storms will likely develop in northern MS and then slide into the
area by 21z. Look for showers and storms to impact the west by 22
to 23z, central 23 to 00z and then the east by 00 to 1z. The
southeast may see activity at 1z. Went ahead and included all
sites with a prob30 and will decide if we need to introduce
higher chances with the 12 or 18z TAF issuances.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and
northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late
this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area.
Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  65  83  58 /  20  40  20   0
Anniston    92  68  83  60 /  20  40  20  10
Birmingham  94  68  84  62 /  20  40  20   0
Tuscaloosa  94  70  86  63 /  20  40  20  10
Calera      94  69  85  63 /  20  40  20  10
Auburn      93  71  85  65 /  10  30  30  10
Montgomery  95  72  88  67 /  10  40  30  10
Troy        95  71  89  67 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...16