560
FXUS64 KBMX 081947
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Key messages:

- Potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday north and
  central with damaging winds the primary concern.

This afternoon.

Expansive mid-level ridging extended from over New Mexico
southeast to over the Western Florida Panhandle with this featured
centered over Southeast Louisiana. A stationary front extended
from the ArkLaTex region southeast to across the Northern Gulf of
Mexico and eastward into the Northern Florida Peninsula while
surface high pressure was centered over the Southern Tennessee
Valley Region.

Skies were mostly sunny over much of the area with the exception
across our northern counties where scattered mid and high-level
clouds were moving overhead from a dying convective complex moving
into the Mid-South Region. Expect partly cloudy skies north and
mostly sunny skies for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will
gradually become more east to southerly through the afternoon with
speeds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper
80s in the higher terrain east and north to the low 90s west and
south.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging centered to our southwest looks to contract in
size to a limited extent overnight while a mid-level impulse is
modeled to move east of the Central Rockies over the Central
Plains. Meanwhile, the upper low over Southeast Canada and the
Interior portion of New England will remain in place while a
longwave trough swings south out of Southern Canada.

Expect Fair skies central and south with more clouds over the
north as a disturbance moves east over the Central Plains and
toward the Mid-South area overnight. After midnight, some shower
and thunderstorm activity will move southeast into the northern
portion of the state and at least the outflow from this activity
should enter our far northern counties in the pre-dawn hours,
resulting in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
during this time. Winds will be from the south from 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range lower 60s in the northeast to the upper
60s west.

Sunday.

The mid-level ridge looks to flatten further just to our south on
Sunday while a mid-level disturbance moves southeast over much of
Tennessee, far northern Alabama and far northern Georgia in the
morning, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Yet
another mid-level disturbance is modeled moving off the
Continental Divide and over the Central Plains in the morning and
this feature will also move southeast over the Mid-South Region
toward mid-afternoon and will provide support for additional
convective activity later in the day across our northern and
central counties. Residual dry air aloft will largely confine much
of the activity to generally near and north of Interstate 20, but
this environment with high temperatures in the 90s and increasing
dew points will provide ample low-level instability, resulting in
potential for some strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds. Winds will be from the southwest to west at 5-10
mph and high temperatures will range from around 90 far north and
in the higher elevations northeast to the mid 90s south, west and
central.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

HREF suggests a risk for a couple severe thunderstorms will
continue into Sunday evening per precipitation probabilities and
severe parameters. The extent is to be seen pending trends earlier
in the day (sufficient support from upper-level flow, outflow
propagation, amongst other things). A level 1 out of 5 risk is
advertised into Sunday evening.

Another surge of lower dew points is expected through midweek
before gradually climbing later in the week as a potential area of
low pressure evolves atop the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rain/storm
chances may also climb for parts of the region pending the
manifestation and track of this potential area of low pressure.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Mid and upper
level clouds will be thicker across the northern portion of the
area while mostly clear conditions will prevail across the south
this afternoon and evening. Mid and upper cloud cover will slowly
increase over the northern sites overnight into Sunday with some
shower and thunderstorm activity possible near the northern
terminals through the mid to late morning, but potential is too
low to mention at this issuance. This potential looks to be
greater near and past the end of this cycle while dry conditions
will continue across the southern sites.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days with some directional variability
across central Alabama today/Saturday (NW to SW), west-
northwesterly on Sunday, and northerly on Monday. Some showers and
thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a
front moves across the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  91  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
Anniston    64  92  68  85 /   0  30  20  20
Birmingham  68  94  69  85 /   0  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  66  96  70  87 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      65  94  70  86 /   0  20  20  20
Auburn      66  93  71  87 /   0  20  20  30
Montgomery  65  94  72  90 /   0  10  20  30
Troy        65  95  71  91 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...05