050
FXUS64 KBMX 081847
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
147 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Key messages:
- Potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday north and
  central with damaging winds the primary concern.

This afternoon.

Expansive mid-level ridging extended from over New Mexico
southeast to over the Western Florida Panhandle with this featured
centered over Southeast Louisiana. A stationary front extended
from the ArkLaTex region southeast to across the Northern Gulf of
Mexico and eastward into the Northern Florida Peninsula while
surface high pressure was centered over the Southern Tennessee
Valley Region.

Skies were mostly sunny over much of the area with the exception
across our northern counties where scattered mid and high-level
clouds were moving overhead from a dying convective complex moving
into the Mid-South Region. Expect partly cloudy skies north and
mostly sunny skies for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will
gradually become more east to southerly through the afternoon with
speeds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper
80s in the higher terrain east and north to the low 90s west and
south.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging centered to our southwest looks to contract in
size to a limited extent overnight while a mid-level impulse is
modeled to move east of the Central Rockies over the Central
Plains. Meanwhile, the upper low over Southeast Canada and the
Interior portion of New England will remain in place while a
longwave trough swings south out of Southern Canada.

Expect Fair skies central and south with more clouds over the
north as a disturbance moves east over the Central Plains and
toward the Mid-South area overnight. After midnight, some shower
and thunderstorm activity will move southeast into the northern
portion of the state and at least the outflow from this activity
should enter our far northern counties in the pre-dawn hours,
resulting in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
during this time. Winds will be from the south from 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range lower 60s in the northeast to the upper
60s west.

Sunday.

The mid-level ridge looks to flatten further just to our south on
Sunday while a mid-level disturbance moves southeast over much of
Tennessee, far northern Alabama and far northern Georgia in the
morning, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Yet
another mid-level disturbance is modeled moving off the
Continental Divide and over the Central Plains in the morning and
this feature will also move southeast over the Mid-South Region
toward mid-afternoon and will provide support for additional
convective activity later in the day across our northern and
central counties. Residual dry air aloft will largely confine much
of the activity to generally near and north of Interstate 20, but
this environment with high temperatures in the 90s and increasing
dew points will provide ample low-level instability, resulting in
potential for some strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds. Winds will be from the southwest to west at 5-10
mph and high temperatures will range from around 90 far north and
in the higher elevations northeast to the mid 90s south, west and
central.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

We have a much clearer picture of the long term period than 24
hours ago with the GFS finally coming into agreement with the
ECMWF. A large trough over the eastern CONUS will deliver a cold
front to our area Sunday night into Monday. Modest upper-level
support and lift near the front may be sufficient for isolated or
scattered showers and storms Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from
the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the
mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative
humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday. An increase
in moisture and rain chances may take place on Thursday and
Friday with the possible development of a subtropical low in the
Gulf of Mexico.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Mid and upper
level clouds will be thicker across the northern portion of the
area while mostly clear conditions will prevail across the south
this afternoon and evening. Mid and upper cloud cover will slowly
increase over the northern sites overnight into Sunday with some
shower and thunderstorm activity possible near the northern
terminals through the mid to late morning, but potential is too
low to mention at this issuance. This potential looks to be
greater near and past the end of this cycle while dry conditions
will continue across the southern sites.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain
free conditions expected areawide through tonight. Minimum RH
values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon. 20ft
winds will vary from northwest to southwest by this afternoon and
remain at or below 7 mph. Rain chances return to the north
Sunday afternoon, with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40
percent in the far southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  91  65  84 /  20  30  20  20
Anniston    64  92  68  85 /   0  30  20  20
Birmingham  68  94  69  85 /   0  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  66  96  70  87 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      65  94  70  87 /   0  20  20  20
Auburn      66  93  71  87 /   0  20  20  20
Montgomery  65  94  72  90 /   0   0  20  20
Troy        65  95  71  90 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05