583
FXUS64 KBMX 081713
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Broad ridging will persist over the area with surface high
pressure centered across Middle Tennessee. This will result in
conditions through tonight. A few disturbances will rotate east
around the ridge, resulting in showers and storms to our north,
with just mid to upper level clouds spreading southward into our
north. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s north and
northeast to the low 90s south and southwest.

On Sunday, a trailing cold front will push southward through the
Tennessee Valley. Convection should mainly remain to our north
through the morning and early afternoon. Expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to spread into north Central Alabama mid
to late afternoon and through the evening, as the front drifts
southward and outflow boundaries interact with a conditionally
unstable airmass characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE and 35-45kts
of bulk shear. Strong storms are possible across the north and
will need to monitor the trends as we get closer. Convective temps
are rather high given warm low levels, and development will
depend on outflow boundaries or the difficulty of timing the
arrival of the front, due to the zonal flow aloft. In addition,
dry air at the surface should prevent too much from developing in
the south and central sections.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

We have a much clearer picture of the long term period than 24
hours ago with the GFS finally coming into agreement with the
ECMWF. A large trough over the eastern CONUS will deliver a cold
front to our area Sunday night into Monday. Modest upper-level
support and lift near the front may be sufficient for isolated or
scattered showers and storms Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from
the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the
mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative
humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday. An increase
in moisture and rain chances may take place on Thursday and
Friday with the possible development of a subtropical low in the
Gulf of Mexico.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Mid and upper
level clouds will be thicker across the northern portion of the
area while mostly clear conditions will prevail across the south
this afternoon and evening. Mid and upper cloud cover will slowly
increase over the northern sites overnight into Sunday with some
shower and thunderstorm activity possible near the northern
terminals through the mid to late morning, but potential is too
low to mention at this issuance. This potential looks to be
greater near and past the end of this cycle while dry conditions
will continue across the southern sites.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain
free conditions expected areawide through tonight. Minimum RH
values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon. 20ft
winds will vary from northwest to southwest by this afternoon and
remain at or below 7 mph. Rain chances return to the north
Sunday afternoon, with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40
percent in the far southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  91  65  84 /  20  30  20  20
Anniston    64  92  68  85 /   0  30  20  20
Birmingham  68  94  69  85 /   0  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  66  96  70  87 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      65  94  70  87 /   0  20  20  20
Auburn      66  93  71  87 /   0  20  20  20
Montgomery  65  94  72  90 /   0   0  20  20
Troy        65  95  71  90 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05