577
FXUS64 KBMX 072322
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
622 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

This afternoon.

The forecast area is positioned between a longwave trough to our
east and broad and expansive ridging over much of Mexico and the
Southern Plains. Modeling depicts the quick movement of a mid-
level impulse southeastward over Eastern Alabama into Georgia this
afternoon through early evening. Surface Theta-E analysis shows
the presence of a weak front that extended near Demopolis
northeast to near Alexander City at the 1 pm hour. With the upper
support, this boundary will continue to move further southeast
through the rest of the afternoon.

Skies are sunny across the north and the western areas while
mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions were being experienced
across portions of our east and southeast counties where enough
residual moisture in the low to mid levels reside. Drier air will
continue to arrive from the northwest through the afternoon,
resulting the clouds becoming further confined to the southeast
through late afternoon. Dew points will also continue to decrease
through the 50s as the afternoon progresses with drier air mixing
down from aloft. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-16 mph and
breezy at times. Highs will range from the mid 80s far north to
the low 90s across the southern third of the area.

Tonight.

The longwave trough moves east off the Southeast Atlantic Coast
tonight while the broad and expansive ridge builds into the area,
becoming centered over Southeast Texas. The weak surface front
reaches the Northern Gulf Coast tonight while strong surface high
pressure expands over the Tennessee Valley Region.

Look for clear skies areawide overnight with winds from the north
and northeast from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures may fall into the
mid 50s in the normally colder more sheltered valley locations far
east and northeast with readings from the upper 50s northeast to
the low 60s far south.

Saturday.

Broad and expansive ridging will persist over the area with the
feature becoming centered further east over New Orleans on
Saturday. Surface high pressure will become centered across
Northeast Tennessee with dry conditions persisting locally. Some
disturbances aloft will rotate east around the ridging, resulting
in showers and storms to our north, but the only expected effects
for our area will be some additional mid to upper level clouds
spreading southward over our north and central counties. Winds
will become more southerly through the day with speeds from 5-10
mph. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s north and
northeast to the low 90s south and southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

Sunday, a trailing cold front associated with a large upper low
rotating over southeastern Canada will push southward through the
Tennessee Valley. Convection should mainly remain to our north
through the morning and early afternoon. Expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to spread into north Central Alabama mid
to late afternoon and through the evening, as the front drifts
southward and outflow boundaries interact with an unstable airmass
characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE and 40-45kts of bulk shear.
Will hold off on mentioning any severe storms, as convective temps
are rather high given warm low levels, and development will
depend on outflow boundaries or the arrival of the front - which
is still uncertain given the flow becoming zonal aloft.

Models are in better agreement this afternoon through the rest of
the week, as the front pushes to our south Monday and troughing
deepens over the Eastern CONUS. A developing upper low will move
across the Southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley by
mid week. This low will dive toward the Gulf coast, and pull
moisture back northward into the area for the second half of the
week. An upper level low getting caught within a ridge is a fairly
low confidence solution this far out. Expect rain chances to
increase in the Wed-Thu timeframe, at least in the south, but with a
fair amount of uncertainty will keep rain chances below 60 percent
for now.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected for at least the next 24 hours. Winds
will become light after sunset tonight and remain light tomorrow.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain
free conditions expected areawide through Saturday night.
Overnight RH values recover tonight to above 80 percent. Minimum
RH values will range from 28 to 38 percent Saturday afternoon.
20ft winds will vary from northwest to southwest Saturday and
remain at or below 5mph. Rain chances return to the north Sunday,
with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40 percent in the far
southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  89  63  93 /   0  10  10  20
Anniston    58  90  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  62  92  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  60  92  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      59  90  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      62  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  60  90  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...32/Davis