979
FXUS64 KBMX 070747
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

The cold front this morning is current just across the northern
counties of Alabama but will begin to slide south through the
night and into Friday afternoon. In fact it should be along the
Gulf Coast by 3 to 4 PM. Winds will be brisk at times but
generally less than 15 mph. As we move through the afternoon, high
pressure build in and will be in place through Saturday. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with Saturday being
the warmer of the two.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

There is significant model disagreement in the long term period,
centered around the evolution of troughing over the eastern CONUS.
On Sunday, an upper-level ridge will weaken as it gets booted
from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Gulf of Mexico by a
developing trough to the northeast. Height falls and the approach
of a cold front could trigger isolated convection in our far
northern counties Sunday afternoon and evening.

Forecast confidence drops significantly for Monday and Tuesday.
The handling of a shortwave over the southern part of central
Canada is wildly different between the ECMWF and GFS. The ECMWF
leaves this shortwave behind and develops a deep eastern trough on
Monday. The GFS is much flatter with more zonal flow as the
trough over Canada gets pulled southward toward the Mississippi
Valley. The ECMWF solution would result in a nearly dry frontal
passage on Monday followed by dry conditions on Tuesday. The GFS
is completely opposite, with the frontal passage delayed in
response to a shortwave approaching from the northwest, leading to
wet conditions on Tuesday.

In general, there is model support for low POPs on Wednesday from
both models and perhaps a slow increase in moisture content for
Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

Overall VFR for the period with light winds through 15z then
increasing from the north to around 10 to 12 kts with the front
moving through. Patchy fog will be possible this morning as we
remain south of the front. Light winds will be in place after 3 to
4z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filters in today behind a cold front, with rain free
conditions expected areawide through Saturday night. Minimum RH
values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon and 30 to
40 percent Saturday afternoon. Overnight RH values will range
from 75 to 90 percent. 20ft winds will remain from the northwest
today, at 5 to 9 mph, before becoming light and variable on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  57  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    87  58  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  61  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  89  60  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      89  61  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      89  62  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  91  60  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        92  61  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...16