011
FXUS64 KBMX 062335
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

A cold front will continue through the area today, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop through the afternoon
and evening. There should be plenty of instability for convection to
continue with values around 2000- 2500 J/kg, though shear is
expected to be noticeably less than past days. PW values will be
decreasing as the front moves through, with the front expected to be
midstate by early afternoon today. From the afternoon through the
evening, activity is expected southeastern half of the state where
instabilities are present and winds remain out of the southwest.
The northwest half of the state could see clearing clouds and
drier air through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The front
will move slowly east of the state by midnight tonight, with a
high pressure to the west meandering through the south tonight
through Friday.

Northwest flow will prevail through Friday with much drier air
advecting into the state. Fog is possible Friday morning in many
areas south of I65, where low level moisture will remain through
the early morning. Mostly clear skies and dry weather will remain
Friday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Forecast remains on track through early next week, with a frontal
boundary to our north Sunday and limited rain coverage in Central
Alabama Sunday and Sunday night. The front will stall, waiting for
another shortwave arriving from the west. There is some
uncertainty on timing of that shortwave, but expect an increase
in rain chances in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Drier air will be in place on Saturday as the northerly flow allow
for more of a continental air mass. Temperatures will likely still
rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. Another frontal boundary pushes
southward into TN Valley and eventually into Central AL Sunday
night through Monday, which will lead to increased
rain/thunderstorm chances. However, with the drier air mass in
place ahead of the boundary, there are some questions on the
moisture return and therefore coverage of convective activity.
Tuesday into Wednesday appear to be dry for now with the frontal
boundary stalled to our south.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Other than a small chance of an isolated shower before sunset
near the southern terminals, rain-free conditions are expected
this TAF period and beyond. A weak cold front will only make slow
progress southward this evening before a secondary cold front
moves in late tonight with lower dew points. This may result in
patchy fog overnight where moisture pools along the first front.
Probabilities of fog are too low to mention at any terminal except
TOI at this time. VFR conditions expected tomorrow with northwest
winds at 8 to 10 kts.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air arrives tonight behind a cold front, with rain free
conditions expected areawide through Saturday night. Minimum RH
values will range from 30 to 40 percent both Friday and Saturday
afternoons. Overnight RH values will range from 75 to 90 percent.
20ft winds will remain from the northwest Friday, at 5-8mph,
before becoming light and variable on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    67  86  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  68  86  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      69  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      69  89  63  89 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  69  89  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        69  91  63  90 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...32/Davis