417
FXUS64 KBMX 091720
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

This morning, we are watching a decaying MCS slide across western
TN. The complex may barely slide into the area this morning, but
should be just rain as it clips the northern tier of counties. A
cold front will slowly work southward through the day. As it works
through MS and northern AL, there is an overall consensus that a
MCS will develop in northern MS and then move through Central
Alabama. Given the location of the current MCS and prospects for a
second MCS the idea is plausible. Based the current forecast on
this process and continued the severe potential for this late
afternoon through tonight. These storms will interact with a
fairly unstable airmass characterized by 2500-3500 J/kg CAPE and
35-45kts of bulk shear. Even if the MCS does not develop, there is
still a chance at individual storms developing and reaching
severe potential. Looks like most of the storms will dissipate by
Midnight.

On Monday the front should continue to move south. Until it
finally clears the area, there will need to be at least a small
chance at showers/storms for the area. By the afternoon, the front
will be very close to exiting the southeast. While there could be
a stronger storm in the far southeast by early afternoon, really
feel that the best convection will be to our south.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

A significant upper-level trough east of the Mississippi River and
the associated confluence zone will support relative high pressure
moving southward into the Ohio Valley and southern states. A
cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north
Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s
from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity
values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
remains in control under northwesterly flow at 500 mb.

While moisture will gradually increase Thursday through Saturday,
the arrival of increased rain chances could be delayed. Models are
trending toward more ridging across the Deep South, keeping a
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico south of our area through
Saturday. Our latest forecast significantly undercuts the NBM POPs
Thursday through Saturday, and it is possible that most of the
forecast area remains dry.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

VFR conditions will continue for a few more hours across the
north and will prevail across the south through this evening. A
surface cold front will move south into the area late this
afternoon with chances for showers and some thunderstorms. This
activity is forecast to affect the northern sites as early as 23z
and persist through the night. Rain and storm chances will
decrease into the morning on Monday from north to south with much
of the activity expected to affect the southern sites as early as
12z Monday and persisting through the end of this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and
northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late
this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area.
Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  83  56  84 /  60  40   0   0
Anniston    67  83  58  84 /  60  40   0   0
Birmingham  68  84  60  85 /  60  40   0   0
Tuscaloosa  70  86  61  86 /  60  30   0   0
Calera      68  85  61  86 /  50  30   0   0
Auburn      70  86  63  86 /  40  40  10   0
Montgomery  72  87  64  88 /  30  30  10   0
Troy        71  89  64  88 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05