Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
329 FXUS65 KBOI 072001 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 201 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A weak wave in Nevada will bring unsettled conditions to far SE Oregon and the ID-NV border. Thunderstorms will develop around noon today and last until around sunset. Storms may produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds, with the highest confidence for outflow winds along the ID-NV border and southern Twin Falls county. Outflow gusts will generally range from 40-50 mph, but there is a 5% chance for a gust up to 60 mph. After sunset, isolated showers may continue to impact SE Oregon, especially Harney county. High temps today of 10 degrees above normal warm to 15 degrees above normal on Saturday. Although, there has been some variability in the high forecast for Saturday so a few locations could end up warmer or cooler than expected. Saturday night through Sunday night will be the most active precipitation day coming up as an upper trough moves through. Precipitation chances throughout the day range from 15-35%, with some pockets of 40-50% chances in the Boise Mtns, West Central Mtns, and southern Twin falls. Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the area Sunday afternoon/evening. The strongest storms are most likely south of Twin Falls, where the SPC has a Marginal risk for severe weather. Temps will drop with the upper low on Sunday back to 10 degrees above normal and hold steady there for the long term. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The long term is mostly warm and dry as a low amplitude ridge develops. The flow is mostly westerly, with a few brief periods of west-southwesterly. This will keep temps around 10 degrees above normal each day. A southwesterly flow dominates Thursday through Friday as deep upper low moves down from the Gulf of Alaska. As it moves into the area, a closed low south of California may interact with the Alaskan low to bring some moisture and favorable dynamics. However, the current forecast shows a much drier interaction, with chances of precip below 10%. && .AVIATION...VFR with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a KBNO-KTWF until Sat/03Z, mainly near the Nevada border. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kt possible from storms. Surface winds: 5-15 kt, except gusty near storms. Winds at 10k ft MSL: SW-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. NW up to 10 kt becoming variable 5 kt or less after Sat/03Z. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening across SE Oregon and near the ID/NV border spreading to all areas Sunday. Stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce brief MVFR conditions with heavy rain and gusty winds. Otherwise, surface winds generally W-NW 5-15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....BW