917
FXUS65 KBOI 060251
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
851 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...Breezy winds have calmed this evening. Moisture
aloft is streaming in from the southwest and increasing high
clouds across the area for tonight and Thursday. Warmer
temperatures are anticipated tomorrow, along with isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms in far southeast Oregon and
southern Idaho Thursday afternoon and evening. These
showers/thunderstorms are expected to be high-based and met
with unstable and dry conditions near the surface. This
environment can be conducive to strong outflow wind threats.
Current hi-res guidance suggests this activity could produce
localized outflow gusts as high as 40-50 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with high clouds. Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms south of KBNO-KEUL-KSNT line, after
Thu/18Z. Stronger storms may be capable of erratic outflow wind
gusts of 35-45 kt. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, becoming
variable 10 kt or less overnight and Thursday. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W to SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with high clouds. Isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms should remain south of KBOI Thursday afternoon,
but there`s a 10% chance of a storm hitting KBOI between
Thu/20Z through Fri/05Z. Erratic outflow wind gusts from nearby
storms will be capable of reaching KBOI. Surface winds:
becoming light SE overnight, then light NW Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...No major forecast
changes. Hot Thursday through Saturday with Saturday the
hottest day as main upper ridge will be directly overhead at
that time. A Heat Advisory was considered for Saturday but we
would like to see two degrees hotter before making that
decision. Models still indicate a 15-25 percent chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday
within about 80 miles of the NV border. Less chance farther
north. Any thunderstorms would feature mainly lightning and
outflow winds but little rain. Except near thunderstorms winds
should stay light.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An upper level ridge
and southwesterly flow aloft will bring hot temperatures Friday
and Saturday. Lower valleys are forecast to reach the mid to
upper 90s. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, and the
Treasure Valley has a 30-50% chance of reaching 100 degrees.
This will be near record highs for the date. Southwest flow will
also bring increasing mid-level moisture, allowing for the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance
(20-40%) will be near the Nevada border and the mountains on
Friday, and this chance will spread to most areas on Saturday.
A Pacific trough and cold front may push through on Sunday,
although there is model disagreement on this feature. This
would aid shower and thunderstorm development and bring several
degrees of cooling, although temperatures would remain above
normal. Models trend toward a ridge rebuilding to our west
Monday and Tuesday, bringing drier conditions and temperatures
remaining 10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....MC