Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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069 FXUS65 KBOU 112047 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 247 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather are expected Wednesday and Thursday. - Snowmelt producing minor impacts from high streams, mainly in Grand County. - Slightly cooler conditions will arrive Friday and Saturday with scattered showers and storms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe along the plains with heavy rain on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Isolated Convection has developed over the southern third of the CWA this afternoon. Elsewhere there are a few convective clouds over the far northeast corner and over the rest of the mountains. Temperatures have made it into the mid 80s over the plains. Models have the lion`s share of convection over the southern CWA this evening. Some of the high resolution models do have isolated storms over the rest of the CWA for a couple hours this early evening. Convection looks to be over for all the CWA by 05Z/06Z. The upper ridge to our south builds into Colorado on Wednesday. Thickness grids point to Wednesday`s highs being 2-6 C warmer than they are today. Available moisture decreases a bit on Wednesday and there is little measurable precipitation noted on the QPF fields for Wednesday. Will go with minimal to no pops on Wednesday for our CWA. Wednesday`s high temperatures will be well into the 90s F over the plains. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Upper level high pressure building over the Central and Southern Rockies will bring continued hot and dry weather to much of North Central and Northeastern Colorado on Thursday. Models are showing a cold front moving across Northeastern Colorado Thursday morning which should keep temperatures from getting too hot, especially across the far northeastern counties. Max temperatures across the Front Range Urban Corridor will probably manage to reach the lower to mid 90s while the far northeastern plains may not climb out of the 80s. The atmosphere should be somewhat stable and capped behind the frontal passage which should limit precipitation chances. However, some of the models are showing some convection across the plains east of Denver by late afternoon due to moisture convergence. If the storms manage to develop, they could become strong with some hail and heavy rainfall possible. On Friday, the weather becomes more active as an upper level shortwave ejects out of the Desert Southwest into Colorado. Increased moisture and lift associated with the upper wave will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the forecast area. With plenty of instability (Cape`s of 1000-3500 J/KG) and shear (35+KTs), some of the storms across the eastern plains will likely become severe. In addition, with high PW`s ranging from an inch across the Front Range Urban Corridor to over 1.50" across the far northeastern plains, heavy rainfall will be possible. However, storms should be moving at a pretty good clip which should limit the flooding potential. Drier weather is expected on Saturday as the upper level shortwave moves east of the state. However, there should be enough lingering moisture combined with daytime to produce isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms. Mostly dry and warm to hot conditons are expected to continue Sunday through Tuesday as upper level troughing develops over the Western U.S. and a dry southwesterly flow aloft sets up over colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Fairly weak normal diurnal wind trends should continue this afternoon and early early with normal drainage patterns expected tonight. There doesn`t look to be any ceiling issues through the period. Concerning convection, many of the models keep it out of DIA later today, however a couple are showing the potential of some -TSRA around the area with decent CAPE values and surface dew points staying around 50 F or higher through the afternoon. Will put a VCTS in the DIA TAF late in the day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 This late afternoon and evening`s convection could bring brief heavy downpours but the storms are moving. The threat of flooding is not significant for the next 12 hours. Elevated flows continue across the upper Colorado River basin. Remain alert of the dangers of these cold flows, and be aware of any Flood Advisories and Warnings. Flow may increase late this week as warmer temperatures and scattered showers return to the area. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJK LONG TERM....JK AVIATION.....RJK HYDROLOGY....JK/RJK