Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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323 FXUS61 KBUF 041042 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected for most of the region through tonight as weak high pressure across our region drifts to the New England coast. It will become more unsettled later Wednesday through Thursday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, warm and humid weather through mid week will give way to noticeably cooler conditions for the later part of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level ridge axis will remain over the region through tonight, while surface high pressure moves to the east coast. This will maintain dry weather through the period, although a rogue diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm is possible inland from the lakes. Temperatures today will be quite warm for early June, some 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs away from the lakes in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Very active period expected as deep moisture from the Southeast, combines with moisture ahead of a cold front. PWAT values will rise to 1.75", about 1 SD above normal for this time of year, and will make for a humid period until the cold front arrives Thursday. Rising the stickiness will be another day in the 80s, with mid to upper 80s for the Lake Plain and through the lower elevations east of Lake Ontario...including the SLV and Black River Valley. Aloft a shortwave trough with multiple convective vort maxes will pass over our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. The best chances for storms will be Wednesday night with diffluent flow aloft, and additional lift along a 850 -700 hPa trough axis. This will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, first with the warm front, then an additional, more widespread line of storms within a muggy Wednesday night ahead of a cold front that crosses the region. Aiding in precipitation for Wednesday night will be diffluent flow aloft, and additional lift along a 850 -700 hPa trough axis. MUCAPE values of 1,000 to 1,500 J/Kg will maintain thunder chances, but 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25 to 30 knots will keep severe potential low. The greatest risk for stronger thunderstorms will be near the western Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon and evening where 0-3 km SRH reaches 150 to 200 m2/s2 and some updraft helicity tracks as depicted on some of the high resolution models. There will be the threat for heavy downpours within this moisture rich airmass, with potential for training storms ahead of the cold front Wednesday night. The 25 to 35 knots of flow aloft should keep storms moving, with any flooding concerns arising from training clusters of drenching storms. The cold front will enter far WNY late Wednesday night. This will focus the heavier storms and thunder potential for the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region Thursday morning and afternoon, while a pattern change reaches WNY, one with cooler air aloft, lower instability resulting in more showery type precipitation. Behind the cold front southwest winds will be a bit breezy off Lake Erie, with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Cooler, and becoming less humid Thursday with high temperatures ranging through the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A closed upper level low will drop across our region this period, with cooler but unsettled conditions. Multiple shortwave rotating around this upper level low, combined with steepening lapse rates will maintain showers and thunderstorm chances, especially during daytime heating right through this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Patchy fog early this morning will bring localized MVFR to IFR conditions, with the lowest conditions most likely to be found across the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. KJHW has the highest probabilities for restrictions. VFR conditions are expected for the entire after 12Z with isolated showers in the afternoon or perhaps a thunderstorm. Not nearly enough coverage to put in at any TAF sites at this time. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some showers and thunderstorms, especially over the far western counties during the afternoon. Wednesday night and Thursday...Areas of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light to modest winds and minimal waves into midweek. A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday with a few rounds of thunderstorms likely. West to southwest winds will increase on the lakes behind the cold front Thursday through Friday with choppy conditions developing. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...TMA MARINE...AR/Apffel/JJR