Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
866 FXUS62 KCAE 122354 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 754 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak ridging will remain over the region into Sunday, allowing temperatures to slowly rise with typical summertime showers and thunderstorms. Hot temperatures expected to start off the week, then the ridge breaks down by mid-week, leading to cooler temperatures and higher rain chances once again during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Scattered strong storms expected again into this evening. The region will remain along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge through tonight. Meanwhile, Atlantic high pressure prevails over the western Atlantic, maintaining a flow of deep moisture into the area. Regional radar still showing scattered convection this evening over portions of the forecast area. This activity should continue through sunset, then with the loss of heating it is expected to diminish with the overnight hours dry. Abundant low level moisture could result in some light/patchy fog toward daybreak, and some stratus is possible, but HREF suggests the greatest coverage should remain east of the area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Upper ridging brings hot and humid conditions with heat index values in the 100-105 range each day. - Isolated to scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening. Ridging is expected to continue over the region for Sunday and Monday while an upper trough is forecast to pass to our north. As a result, expect the typical summertime pattern to continue as we head into the work week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the summer humidity will likely result in heat index values in the 100- 105 range for both days. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks if spending a lot of time outdoors, especially during peak heating. You can also expect the diurnal thunderstorm activity each day with more coverage anticipated on Monday as compared to Sunday. Given the inverted V forecast soundings each day, any stronger storm could produce strong to marginally severe winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and storms possible each day. Upper ridge is expected to break down some for midweek, leading to slightly "cooler" temperatures along with scattered PM showers and thunderstorms each day. Ridging begins to build back over the region late in the week, bringing warmer temps back to the area. Latest NAEFS forecast PWAT values remain at least in the 90th percentile or above through the end of the long term, which will likely produce at least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity each day. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period, although some temporary mvfr restrictions in br are possible towards Sunday morning. Regional radars showing scattered convection across portions of the forecast area. Will handle current activity with vcts in most locations through 01z, then expect diminishing coverage after sunset. Overnight hours should remain mostly dry. Additional isolated to scattered convection becomes possible once again for Sunday afternoon, but due to uncertainty in coverage location, will not mention in tafs at this time. As for any restrictions, most guidance has been indicating a mostly vfr forecast through the period. There is some minor concern that areas that received some rainfall may have enough moisture towards morning to bring some patchy mvfr visibilities in br. Have included mention for 4sm br in a tempo for this possibility. Otherwise, vfr conditions outside of afternoon convection expected at all taf locations. Winds mostly light and variable overnight, then turning out of the northwest around 5 knots by late morning on Sunday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into early next week with the potential for periodic restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$