Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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944 FXUS64 KCRP 091830 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected today and Monday across a majority of South Texas and minor to moderate across the Victoria area. The heat continues with Heat Index values (apparent temperatures) expected to be generally 100 across the Victoria Crossroads to 109 across the remainder of S TX this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. However, some locations across the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande may have brief heat indices around 110-112 as the sea breeze pushes inland. Heat Index values are forecasted to be a couple of degrees cooler on Monday, but still in the 100-109 range. Actual temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and closer to normal on Monday due to an increase in clouds and decrease in mid level temperatures with a trough overhead. As for rain chances, models indicate a baggy, ill-defined trough currently over northern Mexico, slowly moving across the region today through Monday with embedded short waves, which has the potential to provide weak upper level support for convection. Models are in agreement with moisture deepening across S TX through this afternoon, but disagree on just how much moisture. The GFS is the most aggressive with pockets of PWATs up to 2.5 inches by tonight and brings convection (possibly and MCS) from the western Hill Country down into S TX overnight. Most models show PWATs generally 1.7 to 2 inches and show little convection moving into S TX due to increasing CIN overnight. With increasing moisture, upper level support and an unstable airmass, am expecting convection that develops north-northwest of the CWA will track southward, but diminish as it moves into the northern Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains and encounters increasing CIN tonight. Therefore, there is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across this area and silent 5-10 PoPs across the remainder of S TX. There is a low (10-20%) chance of convection across all of S TX Monday as another short wave tracks across the region and taps into the deep moisture. Kept PoPs low due to a capping inversion, but this may change if the cap weakens. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of heat-related impacts through the week as heat index values peak around 110 A weak cold front will approach South Texas Monday evening, with a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms developing northwest of San Antonio. This convection may grow into a cluster and extend into the Rio Grande Plains Monday night, either accelerating the cold front into our northern tier counties or pushing an outflow through the area. Maintained the low chance (20%) of showers and storms making their way into the Rio Grande Plains as a shortwave passes and changes mid-level flow out of the northwest. Any offshore flow Tuesday morning will quickly return southeasterly in the afternoon with the sea breeze and persist through the rest of the week. An amplified mid-level trough will plunge from North Texas to Southeast Texas Tuesday into Wednesday, with the GFS/NAM extending the trough into South Texas whereas the ECMWF/CMC keep the trough to our northeast. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday may be a time frame where rain chances are most likely to change as we approach midweek and confidence increases. For now, the discrepancies push me towards keeping silent PoPs (less than 15%). Thursday through the weekend will be dominated by ridging aloft to our north and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf creating northeasterly flow aloft and increasing heat concerns and rain-free conditions. Heat index values will generally range 105 to 109 through the week but a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday and Wednesday increases to a major to extreme risk Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Not much of a change for the overall trend in the CIGs and VSBYs with VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening. Overnight, and mainly toward Monday morning (09z/Mon) the lower clouds and patchy fog (VSBY<5SM) will be possible at ALI(30-35%), VCT(30-35%), and CRP (10-15%). Then after sunrise, the clouds will diminish as the moisture mixes out. The one thing to keep an eye on is that the likelihood of thunderstorms is increasing at COT with 30% chance of thunderstorms around 09z/Mon. There is a 10-15% chance that the thunderstorms could get into LRD starting around 10z. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist today through Monday. There is a low (10-20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters today and tonight, becoming a low to medium (20- 30%) chance across the bays and coastal waters by Monday. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected to persist today through next week. There is a low 10 to 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over the open waters today through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 10 Victoria 75 94 74 96 / 10 20 10 10 Laredo 79 98 78 101 / 20 20 10 0 Alice 78 96 75 99 / 10 20 10 10 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 10 20 10 10 Cotulla 78 97 78 101 / 40 30 10 0 Kingsville 80 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 81 91 / 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...JSL/86