Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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532 FXUS64 KCRP 122018 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The tail end of a passing mid-level disturbance across the Lower Mississippi Valley has lead to rounds of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms across the area today. Most of the activity has remained weak, affecting mostly portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend. Although low to medium rain chances (15-35%) will persist through this evening, and convection is expected to gradually taper off overnight, another round of showers will be possible on Thursday (mainly across the waters) in response to the passing of some weak impulses on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Similar environmental conditions to today will be in store again tomorrow and weak tropical funnels will be possible, mainly in the morning. Aside from that, drier conditions are on tap by Thursday night. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal, but with drier air filtering in, the risk for heat related impacts will remain at Minor to Moderate levels. Heat Index values are also expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns early next week - Increasing moisture and rain chances next week The forecast is continuing to remain on track from the previous issuance. We will continue to experience hot and humid conditions through the weekend with rain chances returning by Sunday. As an inverted trough develops and moves into the region from the south, deep tropical moisture will filter into the area surging PWATs in the neighborhood of 2.5 inches or higher. This will aid in increasing rain chances along the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads early next week before spreading into the Brush Country by midweek. NHC has referenced this disturbance in their 7 Day Outlook giving it about a 30% chance of development at this time. If development were to occur it would likely develop south of our region and this would increase rain chances and the potential for coastal flooding and rip currents in our area. Since this is still very far out, there is low confidence on if this will impact our area at this time, though it will be continually monitored. The rain would be greatly welcomed and could bring a nice relief to South Texas. In regards to our temperatures, with the influx of moisture and already high temperatures, heat related impacts look to return early next week especially over the Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at all terminals. The only exception will be this afternoon at VCT due to nearby convective activity, and at ALI Thursday morning owing to low ceilings and MVFR visibility restrictions. Aside from this, expect a generally light east to southeasterly wind at 12 knots or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend. Onshore flow will become more moderate early next week with periods of moderate to strong levels possible. There will be an influx of deep tropical moisture over the coastal waters, increasing rain chances to medium by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 77 94 / 10 20 0 0 Victoria 75 94 74 96 / 20 20 0 0 Laredo 80 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 76 97 74 98 / 10 20 0 0 Rockport 81 93 81 93 / 20 20 0 0 Cotulla 79 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 77 95 76 95 / 10 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 82 92 82 91 / 20 30 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....NP/92 AVIATION...ANM/88