200
FXUS64 KCRP 112344
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

-Minor to moderate heat related impacts continue through
 Wednesday

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening
  and again Wednesday

A line of showers and thunderstorms is marching southwards from the
Hill Country area. This is in association with a upper level
disturbance in conjunction with an outflow boundary that is expected
to move through the region this evening. With the system entering
more of a stable atmosphere these showers and storms are expected to
fizzle out as they enter into the CWA this evening. Can`t completely
rule some storms holding together a little longer though anything
that does move into the area should be out by midnight. Models
depict the area still being under a trough tomorrow as the
disturbance kicks to the east along with above normal moisture (1.9-
2.0 inches). This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
develop again tomorrow morning. Things will quiet down Wednesday
evening though and translate to more seasonal conditions.

Expect continued hot conditions through Wednesday. Heat indices look
to be around 100 from the Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads
with around 108 along the southern Coastal Bend.

Since conditions are expected to be similar tomorrow morning to what
they were this morning, a tropical funnel cloud or two cannot be
ruled out. If one does form, it will be very brief and likely no
impact to the public, though still exercise caution.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns early next week

- Increasing moisture and rain chances next week

Overall, not much change with this long term forecast update. We
look to hang onto some low-end rain chances along the coast on
Thursday as a H5 shortwave exits the region. Ridging quickly builds
in and takes us into the weekend. Increased subsidence will promote
rain-free conditions through Sunday. By Sunday, we end up with a
weakness in the flow aloft as we are sandwiched in-between highs to
our west and east and lows to our north and south. As we sit in this
col, a developing inverted trough will spread deep tropical moisture
across the region through early next week with PWATs likely
exceeding 2.5". Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on
Sunday with chances gradually increasing through the middle of the
week. We will need to keep a close eye on the Gulf next week
regarding potential tropical development. There are some signs that
a weak surface low may develop over the southwest Gulf early next
week. It`s too early to determine any specific details but it does
appear that some much needed rain is on the way.

Taking a look at our temps, highs Thursday-Sunday will generally run
between 90 along the coast to around 105 out west with heat indices
between 105-109. By early next week, we see our risk for heat-
related impacts climb back up as deep tropical moisture spreads
inland resulting in heat indices from 110-114.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this period across
South Texas terminals. There is a brief period where thunderstorms
moving out of the Hill Country could affect COT/VCR, but current
expectations are that these should begin to dissipate over the
next couple of hours so chances of them affecting other sites are
low. Have mentioned tempo MVFR condition toward morning for ALI
and VCT sites with a low to moderate potential of CIGS/Vis
reductions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms exists for
Wednesday morning through the evening. Otherwise, weak to
occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue as we head
through the weekend. Onshore flow will increase early next week to
more moderate levels. Deep tropical moisture will spread over the
coastal waters late this weekend, leading to increase rain
chances heading into the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  78  93 /  10  30   0  10
Victoria          76  92  74  95 /  20  40   0  10
Laredo            78 100  79 101 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             76  97  75  98 /  10  30   0  10
Rockport          81  92  80  93 /  10  40   0  10
Cotulla           78  99  79 101 /  20  10   0   0
Kingsville        78  96  77  95 /  10  30   0  10
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  91 /  10  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...PH/83