399
FXUS64 KCRP 111744
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate heat-related impacts are expected today and
Wednesday across South Texas.

- Low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today and
tonight, increasing to a medium (20-30%) chance on Wednesday.

A northwest flow aloft will continue to bring embedded short waves
southeastward across TX today. Moisture across S TX is limited to
the lower levels with PWATs generally 1.5-1.7 inches most of the
day. Models prog convection to develop across north and northwest TX
and show the convection moving south and approaching the northern
tier of the CWA by this afternoon/evening. Several models bring the
convection into the northern Brush Country while others show the
Victoria Crossroads. Some models keep S TX rain free. With the
variation in model solutions, went with a blend and show a low (10-
20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from Cotulla to Victoria
for today into this evening.

PWATs are progged to increase to around 2 inches tonight, however,
increasing CIN through 06Z tonight will inhibit convective
development. Could begin to see some convection redevelop toward
early Wednesday morning, mainly across the eastern CWA. Rain chances
increase to a low to medium (20-40%) chance Wednesday with another
embedded short wave tracking south across the region. Model
solutions continue to vary with placement and timing of the storms,
therefore, kept a more broad brushed chance across the eastern CWA
where moisture and instability are forecast to be the greatest.

Highs will be near to above normal today and Wednesday with
Wednesday`s highs a couple of degrees cooler with increased
convection in the area. Heat Index values will generally range from
around 100 across the Victoria Crossroads to around 107 across the
remainder of S TX each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Saturday,
increasing to moderate to major early next week

- Increasing moisture and rain chances next week

Back-end remnants of a passing mid-level shortwave and PWAT values
around 2.0" will keep a low chance (20%) of showers and
thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains Wednesday night and Thursday.
A ridge will move from northern Mexico into the southern Great
Plains Thursday night into Friday, causing subsidence and rain-free
conditions across South Texas.

This weekend going into early next week most of Texas will be
located in a mid-level col, saddling between highs over western
Mexico and the SE CONUS and lows over the southern Great Plains and
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A col can cause an unsettling
weather pattern as moisture accumulates. We`ll see rain chances
increase over the waters but then move inland early next week as an
inverted surface to mid-level trough combines with above normal
moisture. The ECMWF is the wettest solution with a potent inverted
mid-level trough persisting for multiple days over South Texas with
PWATs over 2.5" but the GFS takes the trough northward and develops
a weak closed low.

We`ll need to keep a close eye on the tropics as 00Z deterministic
runs of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/ICON develop a surface area of low
pressure early next week over the Bay of Campeche. Considering the
potential tropical moisture increase and inverted troughing, have
low rain chances returning Sunday, increasing to low to medium
chances (20-40%) next Monday. The risk of heat-related impacts will
likely increase as our dewpoints climb to near 80. However, if rain
and sky cover increases in future forecasts, we can expect the heat
risk to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail across all TAFs sites through this
evening. MVFR ceilings will move in briefly at a couple of TAF
sites around daybreak tomorrow (ALI and COT). Elsewhere, VFR
ceilings will continue to persist through the remainder of the TAF
period. There is a low chance for VCSH this evening into tonight
for a couple of sites (COT and VCT).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Weak to moderate onshore winds are anticipated each afternoon,
diminishing to weaker levels overnight. There will be a low to
medium chance of showers and storms each afternoon, primarily
over the open waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  93  77 /  10  10  30  10
Victoria          95  74  91  74 /  20  20  40  20
Laredo           102  79 100  79 /   0  10  10  10
Alice             99  76  96  74 /  10  10  30  20
Rockport          93  80  92  79 /  10  10  40  10
Cotulla          101  79  98  78 /  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        97  78  96  76 /  10  10  30  20
Navy Corpus       92  82  91  81 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...NP/92