532
FXUS64 KCRP 122018
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
318 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The tail end of a passing mid-level disturbance across the Lower
Mississippi Valley has lead to rounds of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms across the area today. Most of the
activity has remained weak, affecting mostly portions of the
Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend. Although low to
medium rain chances (15-35%) will persist through this evening,
and convection is expected to gradually taper off overnight,
another round of showers will be possible on Thursday (mainly
across the waters) in response to the passing of some weak
impulses on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Similar
environmental conditions to today will be in store again tomorrow
and weak tropical funnels will be possible, mainly in the
morning. Aside from that, drier conditions are on tap by Thursday
night.

Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal, but
with drier air filtering in, the risk for heat related impacts
will remain at Minor to Moderate levels. Heat Index values are
also expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns early next week

- Increasing moisture and rain chances next week

The forecast is continuing to remain on track from the previous
issuance. We will continue to experience hot and humid conditions
through the weekend with rain chances returning by Sunday. As an
inverted trough develops and moves into the region from the south,
deep tropical moisture will filter into the area surging PWATs in
the neighborhood of 2.5 inches or higher. This will aid in
increasing rain chances along the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads early next week before spreading into the Brush Country
by midweek. NHC has referenced this disturbance in their 7 Day
Outlook giving it about a 30% chance of development at this time. If
development were to occur it would likely develop south of our
region and this would increase rain chances and the potential for
coastal flooding and rip currents in our area. Since this is
still very far out, there is low confidence on if this will impact
our area at this time, though it will be continually monitored.
The rain would be greatly welcomed and could bring a nice relief
to South Texas.

In regards to our temperatures, with the influx of moisture and
already high temperatures, heat related impacts look to return
early next week especially over the Brush Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at all
terminals. The only exception will be this afternoon at VCT due to
nearby convective activity, and at ALI Thursday morning owing to
low ceilings and MVFR visibility restrictions. Aside from this,
expect a generally light east to southeasterly wind at 12 knots or
less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the weekend. Onshore flow will become more moderate early next
week with periods of moderate to strong levels possible. There
will be an influx of deep tropical moisture over the coastal
waters, increasing rain chances to medium by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  77  94 /  10  20   0   0
Victoria          75  94  74  96 /  20  20   0   0
Laredo            80 100  78 101 /   0  10   0   0
Alice             76  97  74  98 /  10  20   0   0
Rockport          81  93  81  93 /  20  20   0   0
Cotulla           79 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        77  95  76  95 /  10  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       82  92  82  91 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM/88