664
FXUS64 KCRP 102048
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
348 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to Moderate heat risk expected for south Texas Tuesday
- Chance (30-40%) Thunderstorms in the Victoria Crossroads this
evening

A weak 500 mb shortwave is moving through South Texas this afternoon
which kicked off this morning/afternoon`s convection, and small
500mb cut off low in eastern New Mexico as well. The troughs are
squashing the ridge that was to build into the region this week, and
has kept the temperatures lower the last two days, and even kept the
humidity down a bit.

The earlier convection helped to over turn the lower atmosphere in
most of the forecast area. However, the outflow boundary from the
convection stalled as it moved into the Refugio and Victoria
Counties. With the stalled boundary there, isolated showers have
started to fire in Refugio and Calhoun counties, so have low chance
pops (20-40%) for the next couple hours as the sea breeze begins to
move into the region. However, as the sun sets, and we lose peak
heating, will expect the convection to diminish.

Th rest of the night will follow the pattern of the last few nights
with some lower clouds/fog that develops in the band of the Brush
Country around Alice, to Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise partly
cloudy skies.

Tuesday, the bulk of the day looks dry with the models showing
convection starting in the Hill Country and going southeast into the
Victoria Crossroads during Tuesday evening. The rain looks to end
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chances for rain Wednesday, then again next week

After a shortwave moves through the region in the short term, a mid-
level trough will develop in it`s wake extending from the Mid-
Atlantic into the Southern Plains. This will maintain northeasterly
flow aloft for much of the week which in turn will help keep out
temperatures and heat indices in check. Towards the end of the
extended forecast, global models are showing an area of tropical
moisture moving northward into the Gulf. With sufficient moisture and
lingering vorticity from the shortwave in the short term, have
maintained low chances (20-35%) for rain Wednesday. Due to
uncertainty on where the tropical moisture towards the end of the
forecast might end up going, introduced low end rain chances (20-
35%) late next weekend into early next week.

Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will keep heat
indices tolerable for the month of June. Daily maximum temperatures
are expected to remain under 100 degrees for much of the CWA
Wednesday through Saturday, even for Laredo and Cotulla! Therefore,
probabilities of heat indices exceeding 110 degrees will remain low
between 10-25% through Saturday before increasing to 40-55% late
this weekend into early next week. Probabilities for heat indices
above 115 degrees are much lower with a less than 10% chance through
Saturday and a 20-40% chance late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Morning convection is offshore. There is still low to moderate
chance for the afternoon convection to refire, more likely near
LRD and COT. Clouds are diminishing as the subsidence behind the
storms is helping to keep the region somewhat dry. Otherwise, the
pattern hasn`t changed much since yesterday, with the VFR to MVFR
CIGs/VSBYs overnight/early Tuesday morning, and then clearing by
16z/Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected each afternoon with winds
decreasing to weaker levels overnight. Low to medium chances for
showers and storms will be present each afternoon, mainly over the
Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  78  95  78 /  40   0  10  10
Victoria          94  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  30
Laredo           100  78 101  78 /  20  10   0  10
Alice             97  75  98  76 /  30   0   0  10
Rockport          94  80  92  81 /  40  10  10  10
Cotulla           97  78 101  78 /  30  10   0  20
Kingsville        96  76  97  77 /  40  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       92  81  91  82 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...JSL