114
FXUS64 KCRP 100500
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to Moderate heat risk expected for south Texas Monday
- Chance (30-40%) Thunderstorms in the Brush Country Tonight

The 500 mb shortwave from the Pacific is beginning to move into the
Desert SW and will head over northern Mexico this evening. The
expectation is that it will kick off thunderstorms in west Texas and
the Hill country late this afternoon and evening. Several of the
models (GFS, ARW, HRRR, NAM, ETC.) have some sort of complex of
storms moving from the Hill Country to the Brush Country early
Monday morning or down the Rio Grande Valley. However, the ECMWF,
SREF, Etc., look to have little into our forecast area, by
12z/Monday, and begins to develop storms along the Coastal Bend. So
have taken a average blend approach so that something gets into th
COT by the morning, and that there is a 20-30% chance for some
thunderstorms near the Coastal Bend and over the coastal waters. The
models then dries things out for the afternoon and Monday night.

Heat-wise, things are a little "cooler" for Monday as the highs are
expected to be 90-100F and the minimum relative humidity will be 40-
65%, which produces heat index values of 100-110F. So the
expectation is that there would be minor to moderate heat risk over
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns once again this week

A shortwave in the mid-levels will dive into East Texas early to mid
next week and move southeast into the Gulf. As this feature moves
through the region, showers and storms will be possible across South
Texas. Due to low confidence as a strong cap is expected to be in
place, kept rain chances on the low end Tuesday and Wednesday. A
broad area of low pressure is expected to develop mid-week through
the end of the week as models are showing a mid-level low pressure
developing across the Southeast US and Western Gulf. This should
help keep temperatures and heat indices at bay compared to previous
forecasts.

Although temperature aren`t expected to be as warm as they could be,
near normal to just above normal temperatures are expected. When
combined with the moisture from onshore flow, moderate to major risk
of heat-related impacts are expected for much of next week across
South Texas with the major risk expanding in coverage as we head
into next weekend. Current probabilities for heat indices to exceed
110 degrees are low to medium with a 20-30% chance Wednesday through
Saturday and increasing to near 50% for next Sunday. Probabilities
to exceed 115 degrees remain slim (less than 10%) through Friday and
increase to 10-30% next weekend.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the morning, when brief MVFR
ceilings are possible at all terminals. VCT and ALI may also see
some brief MVFR visibility. A line of ongoing convection to the
north will continue it`s trek toward the area, but models
currently indicate it weakening as it moves into South Texas. COT
is the most likely site to get any convection, so have a mention
of VCTS around 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected each afternoon with winds
decreasing to weaker levels overnight. Low to medium chances for
showers and storms will be present each afternoon Tuesday to Friday,
mainly over the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
Victoria          75  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  20
Laredo            80  98  78 100 /  10  20  10   0
Alice             77  96  74  98 /  10  20  10  20
Rockport          80  93  80  91 /  10  20  10  20
Cotulla           80  97  78 100 /  30  20  10   0
Kingsville        78  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       81  91  81  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...LS/77