840
FXUS64 KCRP 081804
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
104 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate heat-related impacts are expected today,
becoming moderate to major on Sunday.

Heat Index values (apparent temperatures) are expected to be
generally 105 to 109 this afternoon. However, some locations across
the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande may have very brief heat
indices around 110 as the sea breeze pushes inland. Heat Index
values are forecasted to be a bit warmer on Sunday at 110-112 across
portions of the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande. Most
locations should remain below 110, but if it is more widespread and
expected to last more than a couple of hours, a Heat Advisory may be
needed for Sunday, but confidence is low to medium (10-30%).

Actual temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through
the weekend with highs around 90 along the coast to 100-103 across
the Rio Grande Plains.

Other than the heat, quiet weather is in store for the weekend with
high pressure aloft tracking east across TX and positioning itself
across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and centered over LA by this
afternoon into Sunday. Models indicate a long wave trough draped
northwest to east-southeast across northern Mexico with an embedded
short wave tracking north to northeast across S TX by Sunday.
Moisture is progged to increase, especially across the western CWA
with PWATs up to 1.8 inches, but a capping inversion will likely
keep rain chances low (<10%) for Sunday. This increase in moisture
is the culprit for the higher index values for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week across
most of South Texas with the Victoria Crossroads in a minor to
moderate risk, increasing Friday

- Low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday
night

A mid-level trough deepens as it moves eastward on the Lee side of
the Rockies into the Southern Great Plains Monday into Tuesday. This
will push a weak front into Central Texas, but rain chances will
remain low (20%) as we remain capped and positive vorticity is
focused to our north. As we`ve had to be worried about in May, we
maintain a low chance of thunderstorms along the Rio Grande Plains
Monday night for any storms persisting upstream of the Rio Grande as
the mid-level flow shifts northwesterly.

The aforementioned mid-level trough sags further south-southeastward
into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week as
it becomes a broad closed mid-level low. Meanwhile a ridge positions
itself to the northwest of this trough over the Great Plains. Where
South Texas is positioned in relation to the low and ridge is a bit
uncertain. However, both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF have the
broad mid-level low extending to the Middle Texas Coast, the GFS on
Thursday and the ECMWF on Friday. Therefore, have a very low (10-
20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the waters and Coastal
Plains Thursday and Friday for near normal moisture to interact with
the mid-level positive vorticity. Not confident on these rain
chances as the positively tilted ridge axis to our northwest and mid-
level low over the Gulf of Mexico puts South Texas in northeasterly
flow aloft, where dry air advection typically occurs.

Our main concern through next week (likely be all summer), is the
heat. Heat index values will generally range from 105 to 109 Monday
through Thursday before increasing a few degrees Friday. Long range
ensemble guidance shows less than a 20% chance of heat index values
reaching 109. However, there remains a moderate to major risk of
heat-related impacts for the majority of South Texas with a minor to
moderate over the Victoria Crossroads. Please continue to take heat
safety precautions, look before you lock, take frequent breaks, and
drink plenty of water!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High pressure ridging is in control of the overall weather for the
next 24 hours over south Texas. The lower levels are drying out
enough for the Cu field to diminish. VFR conditions are expected
continue through the 24 hours around LRD and COT. ALI, VCT, and to
a much lesser extent, CRP may have patchy fog issues around 12z,
or haze as the winds decouple and the moisture pools again in the
lower levels. Models have a 40-50% chance for less than 5SM from
fog, while VCT is 30-40% and CRP has a 20-30% chance for less tan
5SM. The fog may form as early as 3am around ALI and VCT, While
it would be, at the earliest, 6am. Then, like today, any
restrictions should be gone by 14 or 15z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the
weekend. There is a low to medium (10-30%) chance for showers
across the offshore waters Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow
expected to persist through next week. There is a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the open waters through next week
during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  80  94 /   0   0   0  20
Victoria          75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo            79 103  79 101 /   0  10   0  10
Alice             76  98  77  98 /   0   0   0  20
Rockport          81  92  80  93 /   0   0   0  20
Cotulla           78 103  79 101 /   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        78  96  79  96 /   0   0   0  20
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...JSL/86