Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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840 FXUS64 KCRP 081804 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 104 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat-related impacts are expected today, becoming moderate to major on Sunday. Heat Index values (apparent temperatures) are expected to be generally 105 to 109 this afternoon. However, some locations across the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande may have very brief heat indices around 110 as the sea breeze pushes inland. Heat Index values are forecasted to be a bit warmer on Sunday at 110-112 across portions of the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande. Most locations should remain below 110, but if it is more widespread and expected to last more than a couple of hours, a Heat Advisory may be needed for Sunday, but confidence is low to medium (10-30%). Actual temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend with highs around 90 along the coast to 100-103 across the Rio Grande Plains. Other than the heat, quiet weather is in store for the weekend with high pressure aloft tracking east across TX and positioning itself across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and centered over LA by this afternoon into Sunday. Models indicate a long wave trough draped northwest to east-southeast across northern Mexico with an embedded short wave tracking north to northeast across S TX by Sunday. Moisture is progged to increase, especially across the western CWA with PWATs up to 1.8 inches, but a capping inversion will likely keep rain chances low (<10%) for Sunday. This increase in moisture is the culprit for the higher index values for Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week across most of South Texas with the Victoria Crossroads in a minor to moderate risk, increasing Friday - Low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night A mid-level trough deepens as it moves eastward on the Lee side of the Rockies into the Southern Great Plains Monday into Tuesday. This will push a weak front into Central Texas, but rain chances will remain low (20%) as we remain capped and positive vorticity is focused to our north. As we`ve had to be worried about in May, we maintain a low chance of thunderstorms along the Rio Grande Plains Monday night for any storms persisting upstream of the Rio Grande as the mid-level flow shifts northwesterly. The aforementioned mid-level trough sags further south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week as it becomes a broad closed mid-level low. Meanwhile a ridge positions itself to the northwest of this trough over the Great Plains. Where South Texas is positioned in relation to the low and ridge is a bit uncertain. However, both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF have the broad mid-level low extending to the Middle Texas Coast, the GFS on Thursday and the ECMWF on Friday. Therefore, have a very low (10- 20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the waters and Coastal Plains Thursday and Friday for near normal moisture to interact with the mid-level positive vorticity. Not confident on these rain chances as the positively tilted ridge axis to our northwest and mid- level low over the Gulf of Mexico puts South Texas in northeasterly flow aloft, where dry air advection typically occurs. Our main concern through next week (likely be all summer), is the heat. Heat index values will generally range from 105 to 109 Monday through Thursday before increasing a few degrees Friday. Long range ensemble guidance shows less than a 20% chance of heat index values reaching 109. However, there remains a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts for the majority of South Texas with a minor to moderate over the Victoria Crossroads. Please continue to take heat safety precautions, look before you lock, take frequent breaks, and drink plenty of water! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 High pressure ridging is in control of the overall weather for the next 24 hours over south Texas. The lower levels are drying out enough for the Cu field to diminish. VFR conditions are expected continue through the 24 hours around LRD and COT. ALI, VCT, and to a much lesser extent, CRP may have patchy fog issues around 12z, or haze as the winds decouple and the moisture pools again in the lower levels. Models have a 40-50% chance for less than 5SM from fog, while VCT is 30-40% and CRP has a 20-30% chance for less tan 5SM. The fog may form as early as 3am around ALI and VCT, While it would be, at the earliest, 6am. Then, like today, any restrictions should be gone by 14 or 15z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend. There is a low to medium (10-30%) chance for showers across the offshore waters Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected to persist through next week. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms over the open waters through next week during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 80 94 / 0 0 0 20 Victoria 75 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 20 Laredo 79 103 79 101 / 0 10 0 10 Alice 76 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 81 92 80 93 / 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 78 103 79 101 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 78 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 82 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...JSL/86