Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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275 FXUS64 KCRP 062321 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 621 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Key Messages: - Patchy morning fog possible tonight. Ridging aloft will continue to build through the short-term range with mostly rain-free conditions persisting across South Texas. Some pockets of deeper moisture will move over the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon/evening sparking convection along the way, but expecting most of the activity to stay west of the border. Much drier conditions arrive Friday into Friday night with PWATs falling below normal levels. Having said that, low level moisture will remain high enough for patchy fog development across portions of the Coastal Plains tonight under light and variable winds. In regards to the temperatures, these will be running a few degrees cooler at 850 mb allowing for surface temps to run slightly cooler during the daytime on Friday. The combination of the slightly drier air and cooler temperatures will in turn limit the spread of Heat Advisory conditions tomorrow. Nonetheless, a few locations could still reach Advisory criteria (110-114 degrees) tomorrow afternoon if a seabreeze develops, particularly those along inland portions of the southern coastal counties and into Jim Wells. After much consideration, have decided to hold off on issuance of another Coastal Flood Advisory for tonight into Friday morning`s high tide cycle. The main reason for the hold off is because swell periods, heights and winds have been subsiding through the day and this trend change is expected to limit the potential for coastal flooding. But, will pass it on to the evening shift for monitoring and further evaluation in case one is needed later on. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Mid-level ridging gradually shifts eastward across the region over the weekend and by Monday has lost its influence over South Texas. A shortwave is progged to pass across the area, and while moisture still looks low, could be enough to squeeze out a bit of convection Monday into Tuesday before ridging regains control. PoPs are minimal at this time, but may need to consider increasing if model agreement improves. GFS, as it frequently the case, is the most robust with rain chances while other models are drier. As far as temperatures, we will actually drop it back a notch this weekend and into next week. It`s still going to be hot - it is June in South Texas after all - but temperatures west will be mainly between 100 and 105 with 90s east. Heat index values are also looking mainly below 110 through much of the week. Overall the pattern is pretty typical with daily sea breeze pushing in clearing out clouds and bringing breezy southeasterly winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period except for VCT/ALI where MVFR VSBY`s expected overnight due to fog/haze. Winds generally light but will gust up to around 20 knots out of the east/southeast tomorrow afternoon. LRD is forecasted to have haze with 5-6 sm visibilities prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Weak onshore flow is expected through tonight increasing to weak to moderate onshore flow levels by Friday night. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 76 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 93 81 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>244- 342>344. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...BF/80