862
FXUS63 KDDC 111728
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing warming trend continues this week with temperatures
  expected to top the century mark in some areas Thursday.

- There is a 30-50% chance for thunderstorms late Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough transitioning east
through the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low is sliding
southeast through the Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, a weak lee
side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado
while a weak cold front is pushing slowly southeast through
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska.

Minimal rain chances (<20%) at best are expected across portions of
west central and central Kansas later this afternoon as an attendant
frontal boundary to an upper level trough pushing into the Upper
Midwest, stalls out in the area in question by this afternoon.
Despite an extremely weak field of westerlies aloft, ample moisture
within a prevailing southerly flow providing sufficient instability
combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates will set the stage
for potential isolated thunderstorm develop later this afternoon in
vicinity of the stalled boundary. There is very low confidence for
any appreciable rainfall as suggested by the HREF showing only a
10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding even one-hundredth of an inch
in vicinity of the I-70 corridor by this evening. Essentially, a
rogue storm or two cannot be ruled out.

Seasonal temperatures are forecast today as prevailing southerlies
help draw slightly warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures
up around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C in extreme southwest
Kansas. The HREF paints a widespread 60-80% probability of highs
exceeding 85F this afternoon. For tonight, the HREF shows a 40-60%
probability of lows falling below 65F in west central Kansas to only
a 10-20% in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to portions of western Kansas
toward the end of the week as medium range models indicate an upper
level shortwave trough moving off the Pacific into the Desert Southwest
sometime late Thursday/early Friday, setting up an increasingly difluent
southwest flow aloft across the high plains of eastern Colorado and
northeast New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Although uncertainty abounds
to timing/track of this next system, a deepening lee side trough
axis in response the approaching shortwave and prevailing southerlies
helping provide sufficient moisture return, will support thunderstorm
development across the high plains Friday afternoon/evening. The
latest NBM indicates a 30-40% probability for 12-hr QPF exceeding
a tenth of an inch across west central and extreme southwest Kansas
by early Saturday morning.

The ongoing warming trend continues into Wednesday as prevailing low
level southerlies ahead of an approaching upper level ridge axis
enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85
temperatures up into the mid/upper 20s(C). The NBM points to a
widespread 80-90% probability of afternoon highs climbing above 90F
with a 40-60% probability of temperatures nudging above 100F Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An area of high pressure at the surface will move east into the
Mid Mississippi Valley tonight as a trough of low pressure
deepens across eastern Colorado. Scattered afternoon clouds
across southwest Kansas in the 3000 to 5000ft AGL level will
dissipate between 00z and 03z Wednesday. The winds will
be/become south southeast at 10 knots or less by 00z Wednesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert