Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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342 FXUS63 KDLH 112025 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue this afternoon and into the evening. There is a slight chance for stronger storms in NW WI. - Severe weather is expected on Wednesday, primarily during the late afternoon into the evening. The main concerns will be very large hail (2"+ diameter) and damaging wind gusts though there is a low-end tornado threat too. - An active warm and wet weather pattern going forward, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday, late Saturday into Sunday, and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The active pattern continues with warm to hot air making its presence known this week. These temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, but accompanying them will be surges of moist air. This unstable environment will fuel strong storms several times this week. Skies clear behind a cold front this afternoon allowing for a couple of hours of heating. Areas near Brainerd are already up to 75 to 80 degrees meanwhile temperatures are in the 40s along the North Shore. There will be some boundaries to work with and if anything does get going, there could be just enough oomph to have to keep an eye on. A narrow meridionally oriented CAPE ribbon with values exceeding 1000 J/kg this evening in concert with 25 knots of effective shear may provide just enough to cause a thunderstorm or two which may be strong. Things quiet down overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes, but moisture advection will move 1.5" PWAT air into the region. Meanwhile an upper level jet max will punch in from the west MUCAPES crawl into the 2000 J/kg range while wind shear exceeds 40 knots with fairly linear hodographs giving a good threat for large hail and downdraft CAPE`s exceed 1000 J/kg giving the eventual wind threat as convection evolves. Some guidance favors a more discrete mode to begin with, but a handful of members evolve the convection into a linear segment Wednesday afternoon. While the parameter space isn`t too abnormal, it is definitely towards the higher end of the spectrum for our forecast area. While the main threat will be in the evening, an upper level shortwave will move overhead overnight and will likely keep convection going into Thursday. Eventually drier air sneaks down from Canada on Thursday evening suppressing the precipitation. The next heat dome arrives on Saturday with another rush of warm and humid air from the south with PWATs getting close to 1.75". A long and strong low level jet will aid in fueling convection again Saturday evening. With all the active weather and warm rain processes in effect may have to start to be more concerned about flooding with this system as it lingers just enough with high enough precipitation rates to potentially cause issues. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 System exits the region this afternoon but a stubborn IFR and even LIFR band of clouds is trailing the rainfall. The low ceilings should be short-lived, but following them are IFR ceilings that also should only last a few hours at most. Skies clear with some instability sneaking in for perhaps another round of showers this afternoon before quieting down overnight. May see some fog with all the residual moisture. Active weather returns Wednesday with more storms expected. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Departing system may bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms to Western Lake Superior this evening. The threat is there, but confidence is only medium. A better system arrives on Wednesday afternoon and evening and this could bring severe storms to western Lake Superior with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats. Otherwise background wind gusts and waves remain below 20 knots and 2 feet respectively until Thursday morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe