Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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199 FXUS63 KDMX 061117 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions are expected again today with gusts up to around 40 mph, the highest gusts over northern Iowa. - Next chance for rain/storms late Friday into early Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Upper level pattern going forward is dominated by two closed low systems, the first over the Great Lakes and the second that will be near Saskatchewan and Manitoba by later tonight. As a result, ridging also stays in place over the western CONUS keeping us in the central Midwest in prolonged northwest flow through at least much of the weekend. At the surface, a high pressure will drift through the region today into tonight keeping the forecast dry today with ample sunshine expected. The only exception to this may be the far northeast where a few clouds may drift through with the upper low helping to kick off showers and/or a few storms mainly in Wisconsin. Although today will be pleasant from a temperature and humidity standpoint with low humidity and highs in the 70s to low 80s, winds are expected to increase again aided in part by a pair of 30-35+ knot jets through the low to mid-levels and boundary layer mixing with another day of inverted-v soundings in some locations. Winds at the top of the mixed layer aren`t nearly as high today as yesterday but still reach towards 30-35 knots in especially northern Iowa. As a result, sustained winds out of the northwest 20-30 mph and gusts up to around 40 mph are forecast, with the highest gusts expected to be in northern Iowa. Won`t rule out a few higher gusts, but overall forecast has winds remaining just below wind advisory criteria. Winds will quickly decrease tonight with the aforementioned surface high and when paired with clear skies, should result in a cooler night tonight where areas north may see some low temperatures in the upper 40s. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Friday as mid-level flow turns to be out of the west increasing our warm air advection as a thermal ridge slides through. Another shortwave moving through the upper northwest flow will start by increasing clouds Friday afternoon followed by returning rain and storm chances to the forecast mainly Friday night into early Saturday. Models are in much better agreement with moisture return reaching into at least part of the area but differ slightly in the overall track of the low. Any storms in our area look to be elevated with the strongest storms more likely west to south of the area where instability is much higher. Won`t rule out a few storms, especially southwest, with the potential for small hail and/or gusty winds in addition to locally heavy rainfall, but the severe threat remains low at this point on Friday night. A few additional showers are possible into early Saturday, but the bulk of the weekend looks dry and pleasant with highs remaining in the 70s to low 80s with continued lower humidity. Enjoy it while you can as temperatures look to climb by mid to late next into at least the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period with just a few higher clouds near northeast sites (KMCW, KALO) this afternoon. Gusty winds main concern today as winds out of the northwest increase with gusts up to around 30-35 knots by this afternoon. Winds diminish again tonight. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KCM AVIATION...KCM