472
ACUS01 KWNS 081244
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into
evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies
centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance
or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in
conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy
developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the
Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may
contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of
sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates
and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around
mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage
is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions
of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery
of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several
low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with
modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High
Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence
renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and
middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging
winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across
the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains
where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending
guidance/observational trends later this morning.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025

$$