Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
477 ACUS01 KWNS 040600 SWODY1 SPC AC 040558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 $$