429
ACUS01 KWNS 090101
SWODY1
SPC AC 090059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph
and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas
through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible
from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the
overnight hours.

...Western into central KS...
Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing
from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term
threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a
tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and
possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an
increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range
across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening.
See MCD 1208 for more information.

...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR...
Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across
parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will
continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large
hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more
information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some
modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time,
which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid
MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN.

Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move
across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps
adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the
severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH
expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an
isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist
through the end of the forecast period.

...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR...
High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme
northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain
possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides
later tonight.

..Dean.. 06/09/2024

$$