794
ACUS01 KWNS 090600
SWODY1
SPC AC 090559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward
across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.  Isolated severe storms
with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of
the central High Plains and southern Plains.  Isolated strong to
severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain
region and northern High Plains.

...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period
from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy
and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and
possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance
generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum
will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would
likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may
tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time,
as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas
and parts of the Southeast.

Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front
during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for
persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary.
Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable
deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat
of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the
greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR
into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe
probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution
of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will
also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with
some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail.

...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a
moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment.
Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will
generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level
east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may
modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell
clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a
threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts.

...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front
Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but
moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts
with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly
better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast
MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe
gusts will also be possible.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior
Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight.
MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear
could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts
and perhaps some hail will be possible.

..Dean.. 06/09/2024

$$