Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
585 FXUS66 KEKA 082155 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 255 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain seasonable through the weekend with increasing marine influence near the coast. A moderate heat wave will build early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A trough is currently crossing over head, covering the area with clouds at multiple different levels. With the passage of this trough, highs will continue to remain cool today with interior valleys peaking around the mid 80s, very close to seasonal normals. Increase moisture and upper level support will allow very slight chance (around 20%) of isolated thunder to persist today over the Trinity Alps, though much weakened surface heating will reduce chances compared to the last few days. These relatively climatologically normal conditions will continue through the weekend. Long rang ensembles are supporting increased forecast confidence on a brief warm and dry period early next week due to a shallow upper level ridge forming over the western US. The nature of this future weather system will make warming weak and short lived. However, heat will be here, no matter how short lived this system may be. NBM is currently showing a 25% on Monday and a 58% on Tuesday of peak temperatures over 100F at Ukiah Municipal Airport. The heat should peak on Tuesday, specifically in Mendocino and Lake counties, with widespread moderate HeatRisk, and locally major HeatRisk in Lake County. In addition to the heat, there remains essentially no chance of any wetting rain through next week across the entire region of northwest California. In the later part of next week, model guidance is supportive of upper-level flow evolving into a zonal flow, bringing temperatures and conditions back into what is seasonally appropriate, or normal. DS && .AVIATION...Coastal terminals...IFR ceilings have been a little stubborn to scatter out at CEC this afternoon. However, coastal stratus are expected to continue lifting and mixing out. Expect VFR/MVFR ceilings with an increase in mid to high level clouds later this afternoon and evening. Low clouds will reformed this evening and tonight along the Redwood Coast with IFR to LIFR ceilings and mist or patchy fog. Surface winds from WNW at 5 to 15 kt along the coast with occasional stronger gusts. After 09/04Z, winds diminish and become S at around 5 kt. Late tonight through Sunday morning, an approaching weak shortwave trough will destabilize the marine layer and conditions will become variable at the coastal terminals. UKI...Prevailing VFR conditions with high clouds streaming across the area. Surface winds from NW at 10 kt and brief gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon...becoming very light and variable after 09/04Z. && .MARINE...The winds have started to increase this afternoon south of Cape Mendocino and this has brought waves up to 6 feet at buoy 46014. Winds are expected to continue to increase tonight and Sunday. These will continue to increase to near gale or gale force by Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected to be in the southern waters. The gale force winds are expected to mainly be in the expansion fan south of Cape Mendocino. The NW wave of 4 feet at 11 seconds is expected to continue to slowly diminish tonight. A new mid period wave is expected to start building in tonight. This will build to around 6 to 8 feet at 14 seconds on Sunday. Winds are expected to remain moderate to near gale for Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds in the southern waters. Wednesday winds look to increase and more widespread gales are possible. The northwest swell is expected to gradually decrease into next week. Tuesday another swell is expected to start to build into the waters at about 15 seconds and build to 4 feet. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png