Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
437 AXPZ20 KNHC 092117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 14N96W to 08N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 95W, and from 12N to 15N between 96W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1026 mb located N of area near 36N135W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle NW winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Light winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Hazy conditions persist off the Mexican coast south of the southern Gulf of California all the way to the Tehuantepec region due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Light concentration of smoke is noted is this area based on the latest smoke graphic from SAB. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft through the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds across the central part of the Gulf Tue through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure pressures over inland Mexico. At the same time, moderate to fresh NW winds are likely between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of SW and southern Mexico for the next couple of days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual climatological position for this time of the year, and this pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-week. This results in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central America. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. Light concentration of smoke is only noted in the offshore waters of Guatemala and west part of El Salvador. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of 10N through tonight. On Mon, winds will begin to gradually increase S of the monsoon trough, likely reaching fresh to strong speeds on Wed, mainly from 06N to 11N between 90W and 105W. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft within these winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N135W. This system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 115W producing mainly a gentle anticyclonic flow. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are observed S of the ITCZ, particularly from the Equator to about 06N and W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft for waters N of 20N, except 7 to 8 ft in Nw swell over the NW corner of the forecast region. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while strengthening somewhat by the middle of this week. The SW flow south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase to fresh to locally strong speeds on Wed, building seas to 9 or 10 ft. $$ GR