257
AXPZ20 KNHC 111547
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N75.5W to 10N80W to 13N90W to
08N125W to 11N130W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted N of 05.5N E of 90W and into the SW
Caribbean, from 06.5N to 10.5N between 103W and 116W, and from
07N to 11.5N between 122W and 140W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between
90W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb is located near 35N135W overnight has
collapsed ahead of an approaching cold front near that area. The
remaining ridge continues southeastward across the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California to well offshore of SW Mexico
along 112W. This pattern supports mainly moderate NW to N winds
across the Baja offshore waters between 30N and the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell.
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the southern half of
the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range,
except to 5 ft at the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms persist across the waters
south of 14N, between Chiapas and Guerrero. North of these
thunderstorms, areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico
may still be lingering across the nearshore waters of Guerrero
and Michoacan.

For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore
forecast waters through Thu, producing moderate NW winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh winds near the coast during the
afternoon through late evening hours. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of
California, pulsing to fresh speeds across the central portions
this evening and Wed evening. High pressure across the northeast
Pacific will strengthen Thu night and Fri and yield a increase
in winds across the offshore waters. Thunderstorms across the
offshore waters of Central America are expected to begin to shift
west and northwestward and into the waters of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and southern Mexico through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, and currently extends from
central Nicaragua across the Pacific offshore waters along 13N
to the south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This pattern is
forecast to persist through the week, with the potential for the
trough to lift farther north and to the waters offshore of
Tehuantepec late in the week. The current trough position is
resulting in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore
waters of Central America north of 04N, and gentle to moderate S
to SW winds between the Galapagos Islands and southwestern
Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 4
ft inside the Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue
across the regional offshore waters, and moving across large
portions of Panama into the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas and scattered
to numerous thunderstorms will dominate the region this week.
Low pressure is expected to develop across portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of Campeche, and western portions of
Central America Wed and Thu. This will induce the monsoon trough
to lift farther northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
winds to the west of 88W increasing to fresh to locally strong,
leading to building seas of 7 to 10 ft. Look for thunderstorm
activity to also increase during this time.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system centered near 35N135W overnight
has collapsed, as a cold front has moved to near that position.
However, the associated ridge persists over the forecast waters
N of 15N and W of 112W, producing a gentle to moderate N to NE
wind flow north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate
S to SW winds are observed S of the monsoon trough from the
Equator to about 08N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the entire area in
mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters W of 120W throughout the week. The SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to increase to
fresh to strong speeds tonight into Thu between 90W and 110W,
building seas to 8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing thunderstorm
activity across that area.

$$
Stripling