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FOUS30 KWBC 110816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 - 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024

...Southern Florida...

A steady influx of tropical moisture, with PW anomalies up to +3.5
standard deviations will trigger scattered to widespread
convection across southern and central Florida. With the stalled
front positioned to the north in a west-east orientation the
environment will be favorable for slow moving capable of producing
several inches of rain. Some of the highest totals are expected to
focus from Tampa Bay to the Keys during this period. Areal
averages of 1 to 4 inches are forecast with very isolated
locations possibly receiving 5 to 9 inches. The Keys and southwest
portions of the peninsula will have the greater risk for excessive
rainfall (Slight Risk) and associated flash flooding, but the
threat extends to the southeast coast and into portions of central
Florida as well.

...Southern Plains...

Much of the eastern two-thirds of Texas and southern Oklahoma will
have scattered to numerous thunderstorms during this period as a
shortwave energy progresses through the Southern Plains. The jet
overhead along with the pooled Gulf moisture will boost rainfall
efficiency and amounts across the region. Areal average of 1 to 2
inches will be common with isolated maxes nearing 3 inches will be
possible. A Marginal Risk for a large portion of central/eastern
Texas and southwest Oklahoma was maintained given the elevated
threat for excessive rainfall and local flooding concerns.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 - 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...Southern Florida...

The stalled front will sag a little to the south during this period
but the heavy rain will persist across South Florida. PW values of
2 inches will hold steady across the peninsula and will maintain
very efficient rain and rain rates across the nearly saturated
rural and urban areas. Areal averages will again be 1 to 4 inches
with local maxes up to 8 inches possible. A Slight Risk for
Southern Florida and the Keys remains in effect along with a
Marginal Risk for Central Florida. The nature of this multi-day
event with storm total rainfall amounts potentially rising into the
double digits, there may be the need for an upgrade in future
updates.

...Texas...

Convection will continue to shift south and east while reducing
areal coverage during this period. Most of the thunderstorms will
focus across eastern portions of the Hill Country and points east.
While amounts are on the lower end the recent rains will have
increased soil saturation thus lowering the amount of rain needed
to become problematic. The Marginal Risk was maintained for an
isolated threat for flooding concerns for portions of central and
eastern Texas toward the Mid and Upper Coast.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...

A Marginal Risk was introduced for portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin
and Iowa where soils have been nearly saturated from multiple
instances of recent rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to accompany a passing cold front through the northern
tier states, potentially spreading 1 to 3 inches over the sensitive
area and may lead to isolated areas of flooding.


Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 - 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...Florida...

Little change in the environment and pattern across FLorida.
Thunderstorms will continue to focus across South Florida and the
Keys bringing another 1 to 3 inches to the area. WPC has 3-day
forecast accumulation of 2 to 12 inches from north to south across
the peninsula with isolated higher amounts. A Slight Risk is in
place from Tampa Bay to Melbourne metros and south to the Keys. A
Marginal Risk area covers central Florida.

...Midwest...

Thunderstorms will pass from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the
Midwest/western Ohio Valley as the cold front progresses eastward.
Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across this part
of the country where recent rains have left soils nearly saturated.
Rain may become excessive and lead to isolated instances flooding.
A Marginal Risk was maintained from the previous day 4 forecast and
spans from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri to southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt